PRESIDENT Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to Japan from May 26 to 29 comes at a particularly sensitive moment. The Indo-Pacific security environment is being reshaped by great-power competition, and the Philippines’ relations with China remain fragile and in urgent need of stabilization. How Manila manages the optics and outcomes of this visit will say much about the kind of foreign policy it intends to pursue.
The ceremonial meetings with Emperor Naruhito and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will carry symbolic weight, but the substantive stakes lie in defense cooperation, maritime security and energy development. Each of these domains offers genuine opportunity — and genuine risk.
Defense cooperation: Capability without dependency
Japan’s planned transfer of Abukuma-class Destroyer Escorts to the Philippine Navy is a tangible boost to Philippine maritime defense. These vessels will strengthen the country’s ability to patrol contested waters and assert rights recognized under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos). Yet defense cooperation is a double-edged sword. Any agreement granting Japan access to Philippine military bases must be approached with prudence, ensuring that such arrangements build genuine self-reliance rather than entrench strategic dependency. The Philippines cannot afford to be pulled into conflicts beyond its direct national interest, including potential flash points in the Taiwan Strait.
Maritime security:Rights and restraint
Maritime security will take center stage in Tokyo. Both governments are expected to reaffirm the 2016 South China Sea arbitral award, which marks its 10th anniversary this year. They will discuss freedom of navigation in the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. The Philippines has every legal basis to assert its maritime rights, and its partnership with Japan offers a practical avenue to do so. But the manner of assertion matters enormously as these moves will be closely watched in Beijing.
The Philippines and China have invested considerable effort in the bilateral consultative mechanism (BCM), committing to promote pragmatic cooperation and common prosperity in the South China Sea. Those gains must not be undone by actions that Beijing perceives as provocative or as evidence of an anti-China coalition. Maritime cooperation with Japan should be framed and consistently communicated to Chinese counterparts as a stabilizing endeavor, not a confrontational one.
Economic opportunity with strategic discipline
The Luzon Economic Corridor is potentially the most transformative outcome of this visit. Infrastructure investment, semiconductor collaboration and Japanese support for small modular reactors could address the Philippines’ chronic energy insecurity and position the country for greater competitiveness. Japan is a reliable development partner with a long track record of responsible investment in the Philippines.
But every opportunity carries obligations. Overreliance on any single foreign partner whether Japan, the United States or China could undermine the long-term resilience and strategic autonomy the Philippines urgently needs. And since China remains the Philippines’ largest trading partner, any economic orientation that damages Philippine-China commercial ties will carry real costs for Filipino workers, businesses and communities.
The China dimension
What matters most about this Japan visit may not be what it delivers bilaterally between Manila and Tokyo, but how Beijing will read it.
If the visit is perceived as a further tilt toward an emerging anti-China alignment in the Western Pacific, whether accurate or not, it would deal a serious blow to the already strained effort to stabilize Philippine-China relations.
President Marcos must therefore use this visit not only to deepen ties with Japan but also to signal clearly that the Philippines remains open to dialogue with China. The BCM and the three guiding principles embedded in Unclos, the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties and the ongoing Code of Conduct negotiations — the duty to cooperate, the without-prejudice principle and the principle of due regard — remain the most viable framework for managing tensions. Applying these in good faith is an act of statesmanship.
A genuinely balanced foreign policy
Marcos’ second visit to Japan is a pivotal moment for Philippine diplomacy. It offers real opportunities to enhance defense capability, improve energy security and expand economic cooperation. But it also risks deepening misperceptions in Beijing and accelerating a regional polarization that serves neither Philippine interests nor Indo-Pacific peace.
The Philippines must pursue a foreign policy that is genuinely balanced: assertive in defending its sovereignty and maritime rights, prudent in managing external partnerships and unwavering in its commitment to stabilizing rather than inflaming its relations with China.
Agreements signed in Tokyo must be complemented by sustained diplomatic engagement in Beijing. Defense gains must be matched by renewed investment in confidence-building with China. The goal is regional security without escalation, and stronger ties with Japan without sacrificing the ties that bind the Philippines and China together.
Rommel C. Banlaoi, PhD, is the director of the Philippines-China Studies Center at Diliman College and president of the Philippine Society for International Security Studies.
