SOCIAL Weather Stations’ (SWS) June survey produced what looks like a contradiction inside a single set of interviews. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s personal net satisfaction rating improved by 8 points from -15 in March to -7. His administration’s net satisfaction rose 14 points from -13 to +1. Yet, his personal net trust fell from -3 to -11.
The temptation is to ask which number is correct. That is the wrong question. SWS measured satisfaction and trust from June 20 to 29. Pulse Asia measured approval and trust from June 28 to July 3 and 6. The fieldwork overlapped, but the samples, wording, response categories and reported scales were different.
Read properly, the surveys are not contradictory. Together, they describe a presidency that may have stopped falling in one measure, but remained politically fragile in another.
Recovery — but not recovery to strength
SWS recorded improvement in Marcos’ personal satisfaction rating in every major area. Balance Luzon rose from +2 in March to +11 in June; the Visayas, from -15 to -3; Metro Manila, from -31 to -24; and Mindanao, from -40 to -35. The administration’s net satisfaction also improved across all four areas, reaching +13 in Balance Luzon, +5 in the Visayas, -11 in Metro Manila, and -17 in Mindanao.
But improvement from very weak levels is not the same as restored political strength. Forty-five percent remained dissatisfied with Marcos personally, against 38 percent satisfied. The administration did slightly better: 42 percent satisfied against 40 percent dissatisfied. Its +1 net score was neutral and still below the +14 recorded in November 2025.
The separate SWS trust question supplied the warning. Only 34 percent expressed much trust in Marcos, while 45 percent expressed little trust and 19 percent were undecided. Gross trust slipped one point from March, within the survey’s +/-3-point national margin, but net trust fell 8 points because distrust increased. Pulse Asia likewise found approval and trust below one-third. Direction improved in satisfaction; confidence remained weak.
Approval, trust, satisfaction not interchangeable
Pulse Asia’s approval question asks respondents to assess performance over the previous three months. Its trust question asks how much confidence they place in a leader. SWS separately asks about satisfaction with the president’s performance, satisfaction with the national administration, and trust in Marcos as a personality.
A leader can improve in satisfaction while trust remains weak. It is analytically careless to place 29 percent approval beside -7 net satisfaction, +1 administration satisfaction or -11 net trust and treat them as scores on one scale (see table).
The common finding is more important than the apparent contradiction. Pulse Asia reported 50 percent disapproval against 29 percent approval. SWS found personal dissatisfaction exceeding satisfaction, 45 to 38, and little trust exceeding much trust, 45 to 34. Administration satisfaction was the exception, narrowly positive at 42 to 40. Taken together, the instruments depict recovery without political strength.
The class question may be more revealing than the rating
SWS also asked whose interests respondents believed the president was serving. Forty-three percent said the rich; 35 percent, the poor; and 25 percent, the middle class. Respondents could select more than one group, so the figures do not add to 100 percent.
The relationship with satisfaction was striking. Marcos recorded a good +42 net satisfaction rating among those who believed he served the poor, a moderate +13 among those who said he served the middle class and a bad -35 among those who believed he served the rich.
This does not prove that perceptions of class favoritism caused the president’s ratings. Surveys establish association, not causation. It does identify the political question the administration must answer: who do Filipinos believe is benefiting from government policy?
What the surveys establish — and what they do not
The evidence supports two conclusions. Marcos remained politically weak nationally, while satisfaction with him and his administration improved between March and June. These are not mutually exclusive statements. A rebound describes movement from a previous point; it does not establish that the new level is strong or that trust has returned.
The surveys cannot establish why every respondent changed position. Their fieldwork coincided with impeachment preparations, corruption allegations, arrests, economic concerns and a major earthquake in southern Mindanao. The data cannot separate those effects.
Nor do the results predict the 2028 election. Approval is not voting intention. Trust is not a ballot. Satisfaction can recover or deteriorate as conditions, alliances and political events change. The disciplined use of surveys is to track direction and depth without pretending that a current rating is destiny.
The easiest headline is that one poll showed improvement while another showed decline. The more accurate reading is that satisfaction recovered from a record low, including a narrow positive turn for the administration, but confidence in Marcos remained weak. The apparent contradiction disappears once the questions are read as they were actually asked.
Bong Habana Ruado is a former public-sector official whose career has spanned government, politics, public policy, and the private sector. His current interests include public opinion research, governance data, and explanatory journalism, with a particular focus on interpreting political surveys beyond their headline numbers. He holds degrees in political science and law (Juris Doctor) and completed the Strategic Business Economics Program at the University of Asia and the Pacific.
