AFTER a brief and hopeful window where global shipping appeared to be stabilizing, the industry is once again retreating from the Red Sea.
In an interview with The Manila Times, Patrick Ronas, a veteran figure in the maritime sector and current president of the Association of International Shipping Lines (AISL), shared his personal observations on the sudden reversal for global trade routes.
Ronas noted that until very recently, there was a palpable sense of a “return to normal.” Major carriers — including CMA CGM, Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd—had begun testing the Red Sea corridors again after months of costly diversions.
“The past month we have seen the likes of CMA CGM, Maersk, MSC and Hapag Lloyd sailing their ships through the Red Sea like normal times,” Ronas observed. “But with the latest conflict, this will make the carriers revert through the Cape of Good Hope.”
The 14-day reality check
According to Ronas, the shift is more than just a change in course, it is a significant blow to supply chain efficiency. Rerouting around the southern tip of Africa adds an arduous 10 to 14 days to transit times for vessels moving between Europe and Asia.
For Ronas, the current infrastructure paralysis in the region is a clear indicator that this “new normal” will persist for the foreseeable future.
“As per the latest news we have gathered, ports as well as airports are closed throughout the entire region,” Ronas said. “And for sure they will remain that way until we see a de-escalation of conflict.”
Reflecting on the volatility of the past few weeks, Ronas emphasized that while the industry is resilient, the “fragility of the shortest route” remains a primary concern for stakeholders.
The closure of regional hubs effectively removes any “Plan B” for carriers currently in the water, forcing a return to the longer, more expensive Cape route to ensure the safety of crew and cargo.