MCA stands to lose in Machap Jaya in the Nov 14 Melaka state election whether Chinese voters revolt against Umno’s seat deal or accept it, says political scientist and Sunway University professor Dr Wong Chin Huat.
He said a backlash from Chinese voters could cost MCA the seat, while accepting Umno’s decision to allocate seats previously contested by MCA to PAS would further expose the party’s declining influence within Barisan Nasional (BN).
“In Machap Jaya, a revolt of Chinese voters may cause an upset. If that happens, Machap Jaya would go to PAS in future and MCA may or may not be compensated with another appointed seat.
“But if the MCA base just swallows Umno’s sell-out, Umno would see no wrongs in its decision. Either way, MCA has a bad deal,” he said in an interview.
Wong said MCA had lost much of its bargaining power since 2008 and that, following the 2018 general election, its electoral fortunes had become dependent on both Umno and PAS.
“When Umno wants to keep its own seats, despite getting weakened, and give MCA’s seats to PAS, MCA has no choice but to accept what was offered like a poor man accepting whatever charitable gifts from his patrons,” he said.
His remarks came amid MCA’s dispute with BN over seat allocations for the state polls, which was resolved after the party secured an additional seat, Bandar Hilir, bringing its total slate to three.
MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong said the allocation was finalised following discussions between BN chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, PAS, and their allies.
Wong described MCA as “tragically trapped”, arguing that leaving BN now in response to DAP’s calls would also lead to a dead end unless the party had a clear alternative direction.
“Surviving on appointed seats would cause MCA to lose much of its little remaining legitimacy as Chinese representatives,” he said.
He added that PAS replacing MCA in unwinnable DAP strongholds could become a broader trend spreading elsewhere in future elections.
Wong also noted that DAP faces an uphill battle in Gadek, Duyong, and Pengkalan Batu, where the combined BN-PN vote in the 15th General Election gave the two coalitions a statistical advantage over Pakatan Harapan (PH).
“It would need some miracles to electrify the PH base and dishearten the Umno-PAS base for a DAP victory to be possible,” he said.
On Bemban, Wong said Bersatu stands a stronger chance because the party won the seat in the 2021 state election and Malay voters comprise roughly 62% of the electorate.
He explained that Bersatu and PH are avoiding clashing against one another so that one side retains a better fighting chance while the other concentrates resources on more winnable seats.
Wong said it was “unlikely that the arrangement would anger PH supporters”, adding that the electoral dynamic would not weigh as heavily on Chinese voters as PAS replacing MCA.
MCA will contest Machap Jaya and Klebang—the two seats it captured in the 2021 Melaka state election—alongside Bandar Hilir, previously held by DAP. The party is fielding Melaka City Council councillor Jasmine HY Lok, 38, in Bandar Hilir, where Chinese voters account for roughly 73% of the roll.
MCA’s internal friction over the initial seat distribution escalated on Oct 24 when Wee and other senior leaders walked out of BN’s candidate announcement ceremony in protest, citing a lack of proper consultation.
The party had initially agreed to defend only its two incumbent seats following talks with Zahid, before securing Bandar Hilir during eleventh-hour negotiations.
The state-level maneuvers come against the backdrop of a Confidence and Supply Agreement (CSA) signed on Oct 29 between the federal government and 13 opposition and independent MPs, comprising six Bersatu lawmakers, six former Bersatu MPs now sitting as independents, and Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman of MUDA.
Under that pact, the signatory MPs pledged to back Budget 2027 and the Anwar Ibrahim administration through the end of the current parliamentary term in exchange for equal constituency development funds.
However, Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin clarified that the federal CSA remains entirely distinct from any possible ground-level electoral cooperation between Bersatu and PH in Melaka. — October 30, 2026
Carolyn K is a Scoop contributor.
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