Melaka polls set to test BN-PH ties ahead of GE16
PETALING JAYA: Melaka’s snap election could become another test for the federal coalition ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16), with Barisan Nasional (BN) riding strong performances in recent state polls while its uneasy partnership with Pakatan Harapan (PH) faces fresh strains.
The contest for 28 state seats comes after BN’s sweeping victory in Johor and its strong showing in Negeri Sembilan, while tensions between BN and PH have become increasingly difficult to contain within the unity government.
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BN swept 48 of 56 seats in Johor in July, leaving PH with just eight, before the two sides found themselves on opposite sides of the political equation in Negeri Sembilan, where BN worked with Perikatan Nasional (PN) to secure 18 seats against PH’s 11.
Now, Melaka enters the picture with GE16 looming over every state-level calculation.
At the recent Umno General Assembly, calls for a tougher stance against PH grew louder, with party president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi challenging those who wanted Umno and BN to leave the unity government to dissolve Parliament.
Yet Umno has continued to maintain that it would remain in the government under the existing agreement, highlighting the increasingly complicated balance between federal cooperation and electoral competition.
Victoria University of Wellington Malaysian Studies chairholder and political analyst Prof Dr Kartini Aboo Talib said Melaka is becoming a key test of BN-PH cooperation following BN’s performances in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.
She said a failure to reach an electoral understanding could lead to multi-cornered contests, potentially splitting votes in urban and semi-urban Malay-majority seats while giving PN room to position itself as a consistent bloc.
For PH, the challenge is further complicated by the emergence of new players and the absence of a formal understanding with BN.
Melaka PH chairman Adly Zahari recently said the coalition had finalised its internal seat distribution, including eight seats for Amanah, while negotiations were still under way with Bersatu for a “PH Plus” arrangement. However, he said no negotiations had been held with BN.
Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) has already announced 15 candidates, including in seats traditionally associated with PH such as Ayer Keroh, Kesidang and Kota Laksamana. BN is expected to cooperate or reach an understanding with PN, with recent statements indicating that cooperation between the two blocs is almost certain for the Melaka election.
Umno Youth chief Datuk Dr Akmal Saleh recently said BN-PN cooperation is important not merely as a bid to secure seats, but also as part of a broader effort to strengthen political unity among Malays and Muslims.
He also said he would refuse to contest if BN cooperated with PH in the state polls. That raises the prospect of multi-cornered contests if BN-PN, PH and Bersama field candidates against one another in significant numbers, particularly in closely fought seats.
The BN-PN arrangement in Negeri Sembilan could also offer clues about how alliances may be shaped at state level, in which the two blocs won a combined 25 of 36 seats and enabled BN to return to power after eight years.
Kartini said Melaka could force parties to rely less on federal-level narratives and more heavily on their grassroots machinery, candidates and ability to hold together their voter bases.
“The absence of PH-BN cooperation would make the Melaka election more competitive and unpredictable, forcing each party to rely heavily on its grassroots machinery.”
Additional reporting by Kirtinee Ramesh
