Sporadic household clusters of meningitis could appear over the next four weeks in other parts of the UK linked to the travel of people away from Kent, a health leader has said.
Kent County Council’s director of public health Dr Anjan Ghosh told a briefing three scenarios were being looked at over the next four weeks, with the most likely being that students who have travelled away from Kent will “incubate” the bug and there could be “household” cases elsewhere.
However, he said these would be “containable”.
It comes as the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said the number of cases linked to the outbreak has reached 29, up from 27 previously.
Some 18 cases have been confirmed, alongside a further 11 “probable cases” – all with links to Kent, the UKHSA said.
Dr Ghosh told the briefing that three “rough” scenarios are being modelled for the next four weeks, as “that’s the time it takes for this whole thing really subside”.
The first scenario is that the outbreak remains contained in Kent.
“Second scenario is that there are people who’ve left, they’ve gone off campus, and many of them don’t stay in Kent, they go and stay elsewhere,” Dr Ghosh said.
“They were incubating when they left, and then they become cases, and there are small household, sporadic clusters outside of Kent.”
He stressed these cases would be “containable”.
The third scenario, described by Dr Ghosh as the “worst-case scenario”, would result in another cluster outside of Kent.
However, he said this is “highly unlikely”, with the second scenario “most likely to be the case”.
Thirteen of the 18 cases confirmed by UKHSA are menB. All cases have required hospital admission.
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