I READ this compelling book Why Nations Fail by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson during the Holy Week, and they explain the concept of a “critical juncture.”
A critical juncture is a major event or confluence of factors that disrupts existing economic and political balance in history. The authors argue that a critical juncture is a double-edged sword, causing a sharp reversal in the regular movement of existing affairs or obliterating cycles of dominance, allowing new models and leadership to emerge and replace the old ones. Examples were the Black Plague and the Industrial Revolution.
The continuing defiance of Iran against the United States and Israel military operations suggests a potential critical juncture toward another world order — one that is more multi-polar, less cooperative, more disruptive and extremely volatile. This war has not only amplified the ability of weaker states and non-state actors to fight back asymmetrically against militarily powerful nations, but it exposed the fragility of globalization and the intensifying competition for the world’s scarce resources. Iran’s choking of the Strait of Hormuz by attacking oil cargo vessels demonstrated how disruptions can surge oil prices, trigger spiraling inflation and slow down global growth.
Today’s Middle East conflict has spawned deeper distrust and intergenerational resentment among peoples in the Persian Gulf toward the United States and Israel. Civilian casualties and relentless counter-missile attacks only intensified hostility, hardening the position of opposing sides. Militant Shiite factions are now more determined to launch suicide attacks against US and Israeli interests to force them out of the region and depose their puppet regimes. The world is witnessing a more bitter and increasingly zero-sum confrontation, with no clear exit in sight — resulting in large-scale deaths, destruction and displacement. The animosity generated is not far from the European genocidal crusades during the medieval period.
Another unintended impact is on global trade, particularly the disruption of basic commodities. Geoeconomic warfare is now a preferred instrument used by states to force the submission of adversaries. From China to Russia and Iran, holding out on exports, whether oil, grain, farm inputs or technology, is increasingly deployed as a strategic weapon to weaken opponents. This approach will be used more extensively in future geopolitical conflicts. Geoeconomic warfare will cause widespread economic displacement, strain public services and worsen poverty across vulnerable regions.
US allies are becoming more uncertain about the reliability and credibility of Americans as strategic partners. Donald Trump has hollowed out decades of US soft power due to this war, as he made inconsistent announcements and rattled the world economy into free fall. At present, Trump faces the November midterm elections with the lowest public approval ratings. The popular vote could change the power balance in the US Congress, even starting impeachment proceedings against him. From NATO to Asia-Pacific countries, many are likewise rethinking their strategic alignments amid the latest US debacle in the Middle East. For some, the US alliance is seen as a burden rather than a boon.
Finally, the world stands on the edge of chaos with the US stripped of its role as the world’s peace guarantor. Russia and China have become more intransigent to force their claims on Ukraine and Taiwan amid Trump’s unilateral action against Iran. Other nations are impressed with Iran’s ability to fight on despite massive bombing, using cheap drones, hidden surface-to-air missiles, and other unconventional tactics. A more dangerous world will emerge from the aftermath of this Middle East war, with renewed arms race racking up across hostile regions and purchases of cutting-edge weaponry and missile projectiles. The scramble for energy security will likely unleash new wars among nations.
The Philippines faces a bleak future ahead. The Middle East war represents a critical juncture in our own history. Domestic markets remain vulnerable to global shocks, wiping out hard-earned economic gains. This demands a recalibration of our economic, security and diplomatic strategies to navigate in a more unstable world order. We cannot subscribe to Western neoliberal market models and dependence on US military protection alone. Similarly, political reforms must be pushed completely, such as legislating against long-entrenched dynastic rule that accumulated the nation’s wealth for a privileged few. Otherwise, social unrest will unravel and the tragic outcomes are the splintering of our embattled nation.
We are now on our own as a people and as a nation. No one else will fight our battles or secure our future. This critical juncture is either we confront such hard reality or accept to be crushed by the weight of history.
