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By Mihar Dias (C) Copyright September 2024
The recent comments by PAS President Abdul Hadi Awang, expressing a desire to revive Muafakat Nasional (MN) with Umno but excluding Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, shed light on a growing political rift within the Malay-Muslim leadership. Hadi’s remarks suggest not only an openness to reconciliation with Umno but also a strategic effort to remove a key obstacle: Zahid himself.
To understand the broader implications, it's important to revisit MN’s original purpose. Formed in 2019 after Umno-Barisan Nasional’s defeat in the 14th General Election, MN aimed to consolidate the Malay-Muslim vote, particularly against Pakatan Harapan (PH). It represented a significant political alliance between two major parties, Umno and PAS, with the potential to reshape the electoral landscape. However, MN fell apart when PAS decided to align with Bersatu under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) banner, leaving Zahid and Umno out in the cold.
Hadi’s exclusion of Zahid in his renewed push for MN signals a major power play. For PAS, Zahid represents a leader burdened by his legal troubles—most notably, corruption charges.
His continued presence at the helm of Umno is seen as detrimental to any serious coalition-building efforts with PAS, which positions itself as a party of Islamic morality and clean governance. For Hadi, working with Zahid is a non-starter, as it risks alienating PAS' base and undermining the party's own political standing.
For Zahid, Hadi’s overtures without him are deeply unsettling. As the President of Umno and a key figure in the current unity government with Pakatan Harapan, Zahid’s leadership is already under scrutiny. His efforts to reject MN in favour of working with PH put him at odds with the conservative factions within Umno, who still long for a return to the Malay-Muslim alliance of MN.
Hadi’s comments are a public display of Zahid’s isolation within the Malay political ecosystem. PAS’ decision to engage other Umno leaders in MN talks, excluding Zahid, signals that there are key figures within Umno who are willing to abandon their president if it means reviving a political bloc with PAS.
The implications are far-reaching. First, Zahid's leadership within Umno could be on shaky ground. If significant portions of the party see more political value in aligning with PAS—especially as the conservative Malay vote becomes more crucial in future elections—Zahid could face a leadership challenge. His legal battles only add fuel to the fire, making it easier for his opponents to question his fitness to lead Umno into the next general election.
Second, if MN is successfully revived without Zahid, it could mark the resurgence of a powerful Malay-Muslim bloc, posing a serious threat to the current PH-led unity government. PAS and Umno, even without Zahid, still command significant support among rural Malay voters. A reconstituted MN would be well-positioned to challenge PH’s multicultural and multi-religious base, potentially reshaping future electoral contests.
Moreover, Hadi’s comments also point to an internal struggle within Umno itself, as more leaders may be willing to abandon Zahid to court PAS for political survival. The fracture lines within Umno will only grow deeper as more leaders realise that siding with Zahid might be a liability, especially when faced with an opposition that is increasingly aligned along racial and religious lines.
For Zahid, the writing is on the wall. His rejection of MN may have been intended to strengthen Umno’s place in the unity government, but it has come at a steep cost. His future as a political leader is now increasingly dependent on two forces he cannot control: his legal battles and the shifting allegiances within Umno toward PAS.
In the end, the revival of MN without Zahid reveals the fragility of his leadership and highlights a growing desire within the Malay political class to return to the comfort of an MN-like pact.
If Zahid cannot adapt to this reality, his days as Umno president may be numbered, and Malaysia’s political future may once again see the re-emergence of a potent Malay-Muslim electoral alliance.
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