By Binod Prasad Adhikari
Sindhuli [Nepal], June 29 (ANI): Marking the start of the rice planting season, a tug-of-war between groups, ploughing the field using oxen and he-buffaloes, farmers soaking in the mud and splashing water on each other, locals of Nepal’s Sindhuli observed National Paddy Day in full swing, even as the El Nino is expected to bring a drier monsoon this season.
The Marin Rural Municipality this year has organised the National Paddy Day celebration, attended by hundreds of people, soaking themselves in mud and water.
“Marking the annual celebration of Ashar 15 as a weekly event, the Marin Rural Municipality organised the Ropain Mela. Continuing the traditional method of ploughing the field and the special song sung at the time of paddy transplantation has been completed with the participation of various ethnic groups. It has been completed with grandeur and fervour," Bimarsha Moktan, the chairman of the Marin Rural Municipality, which organised the event, told ANI.
Along with the celebration, the farmers continuously worked in the field, levelling the mud to ensure an even level and a continuous flow of water, creating favourable topography for the paddy saplings to grow.
While planting the saplings, farmers ran behind each other, smearing mud on their faces and splashing muddy water as a means of fun. These sorts of activities are seen widely in the Himalayan nation on Ashar 15, which has been marked as National Paddy Day since 2005. Earlier, it was marked as the day to indicate the start of the cultivation season with the onset of the monsoon.
As farmers gather, a feast is thrown, which includes beaten rice, curd, pickle and home-made brew. Because of this long-standing tradition of having these victuals, Ashar 15 is also known as “Dahi (Curd)-Chiura (Beaten Rice)" eating day.
Almost 80 per cent of the annual rain in Nepal is received during the monsoon (June-September). The average annual rainfall is 1,600 mm, but it varies by eco-climatic zones (3,345 mm in Pokhara and below 300 mm in Mustang).
In Nepal, paddy is cultivated from a height of 60 metres above sea level in the Terai to 3,000 metres in the hills of Jumla’s Chhumchaur. Nepal annually produces about 5.5 million metric tonnes of paddy, while consumption stands at 7 million metric tonnes. Last year, Nepal produced a total of 5.55 million metric tonnes from 1.45 million hectares of land.
Plantation of paddy saplings in the field, known as “Ropain", holds high significance for farmers in Nepal and is primarily carried out during the monsoon season, which starts in June and lasts for four months.
But this year, the scenario will be different as Nepal heads for a drier monsoon, as the El Nino effect will decrease precipitation. The Monsoon Outlook from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) has forecast below-average rainfall across most parts of Nepal during the 2026 monsoon season from June 1 to September 30.
The outlook, based on climate models and regional and global assessments, also indicates that both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across the country.
In the southern and northern parts of Karnali Province, most parts of Lumbini Province, eastern parts of Madhesh Province, and southern parts of Koshi Province, there is a 55 per cent to 65 per cent probability of below-average rainfall.
In the western and northern parts of Sudurpaschim Province, western parts of Madhesh Province, and central parts of Koshi Province, the probability of below-normal rainfall stands at 45 per cent to 55 per cent, while in the northern parts of Karnali and Koshi provinces, there is a relatively lower chance of 35 per cent to 45 per cent. The remaining areas of the country also show similar probabilities of below-normal rainfall.
Meteorologists attribute the delayed and weakening monsoon to the emergence of the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, a climate pattern associated with drought and reduced agricultural output.
El Nino causes abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific, disrupting weather systems worldwide. The resulting changes in atmospheric circulation weaken the South Asian monsoon.
The south-west monsoon, which lasts from June to September, provides 75 to 90 per cent of South Asia’s annual rainfall. It is the primary source of water for irrigation, reservoirs and drinking supplies. Below-average rainfall during the monsoon season poses a serious threat to food production and increases the risk of food insecurity.
Experts from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization have warned that much of Asia faces a high risk of drought this year. The agency has urged governments to identify vulnerable areas early so farmers can delay transplantation, switch to drought-tolerant crop varieties, stockpile livestock feed and secure alternative water sources.
As a defence against the looming possibility of drought, the local body in the hilly region has procured essential infrastructure to ensure the supply of water amid the adversities.
“We have been experiencing the naturally occurring environmental impact. We are aware that there won’t be enough rainfall. We have taken measures to ensure the flow of water for agricultural needs, the winter season, unseasonal crops and possible drought even during the monsoon. We have been distributing equipment worth one crore to the farmers, which includes motors and pipes for irrigation. We started dispatching it to the farmers just two days ago," Bimarsha Moktan, the chairman of the Marin Rural Municipality, told ANI.
As per the elected representative, the local body has taken this step to ensure the crops are provided with enough water for transplantation.
“During droughts as well, we’re making sure that the farmers can use the lift technique to irrigate the land by using water from ponds, rivers, tributaries and wells to keep up production. We have been focusing more on the farmers," Moktan added.
Nepal’s annual demand for paddy is around 7 million metric tonnes, leaving the country with a deficit of about 1 million metric tonnes each year.
According to the Department of Agriculture, growing consumer demand for fine and aromatic rice has contributed to a sharp increase in imports.
The National Agricultural Census 2021 shows that of Nepal’s 4.13 million farming households, around 2.76 million, or 67 per cent, cultivate paddy.
Farmers say they continue to face obstacles at every stage of production, from buying seeds to selling their harvest. Although all three tiers of government have pledged support for agriculture in their annual budgets, people say there is little help reaching them.
National paddy productivity has increased from 3.80 metric tonnes per hectare in 2019-20 to 4.19 metric tonnes per hectare in 2024-25. Paddy fields account for 54 per cent of the country’s total cultivated land.
In the previous fiscal year, Nepal produced 5.95 million tonnes of paddy from 1.42 million hectares of land. Paddy accounts for 13 per cent of the agricultural gross domestic product and about half of the country’s total food grain output, generating an estimated Rs 200 billion annually for the national economy.
Despite the warning of below-average rainfall this season, scientists have warned that this season could become riskier due to short-term heavy rainfall, rising temperatures, and increasing pressure on water resources in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region.
The study published by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), titled ‘Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026’, has warned of a riskier situation this year. This study projects below-average rainfall in countries including Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan, and above-average temperatures in most parts of the region.
The HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026, based on the forecasts of various climate models at the global and regional levels, states that its objective is to assist governments, disaster management agencies and communities in planning and preparedness before the monsoon season from June to September.
Despite this, experts have indicated a high possibility of flash floods, landslides and other risks. “Even with a weaker monsoon, short-term heavy rainfall remains a major concern," said Manish Shrestha, a hydrologist at ICIMOD. “Communities and relevant agencies need to closely follow short-term weather forecasts and advisories."
The combination of erratic rainfall and rising temperatures is estimated to increase the risk of both drought and floods in the same season. After a prolonged dry spell, heavy rainfall can occur suddenly, creating conditions for flash floods and landslides, especially in hilly areas.
Hydrologist Shrestha said, “This outlook generally indicates a relatively dry monsoon, but that does not mean the risk is reduced. Short-term intense rainfall events can cause severe disasters."
Hot weather is also likely to increase heat stress and reduce water availability. Reduced snow cover stability at the beginning of the season will further weaken the region’s natural water storage capacity, making river systems and groundwater recharge more sensitive to rainfall variability. “The short duration of snow cover indicates a reduced natural seasonal water storage capacity in the region when the monsoon begins," said Sarthak Shrestha, co-author of the outlook.
According to experts, these combined risks are complicating disaster planning and response management across South Asia. “The increasing uncertainty of the monsoon is creating coordination challenges," said Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Head of Water and Disaster Risk Reduction at ICIMOD. “More robust coordination between governments, technical agencies and local levels is needed for future preparedness."
The outlook also highlights increasing pressure on food production, water resources and energy systems, as well as growing vulnerability in both rural and urban areas. “Erratic rainfall after a long dry spell increases the risk of landslides," said Ranit Chatterjee, CEO of Rika India. “This can further exacerbate socio-economic pressures, including migration, food price hikes, energy crises and disruptions in the tourism sector."
Scientists have also emphasised the need for robust early warning systems and impact-based forecasting. “Drought and flood risks can no longer be managed separately," said Arunabhabhakta Shrestha, Senior Advisor at ICIMOD. “Early warning systems, short-term forecasts and local-level preparedness need to work together to face increasingly complex risks."
Experts warn that preparing for only one type of disaster is no longer sufficient as climate change-induced uncertainties increase. “The era of preparing only for a single, predictable risk is over," said Shashwat Sanyal, Disaster Risk Reduction Specialist at ICIMOD. “Forecast-based action and early warnings must now become basic necessities."
The Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region spans 3,500 kilometres across Asia. It encompasses eight countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. This region, comprising high mountain ranges, mid-hills and plains, is crucial for the food, water and energy security of approximately two billion people. It is also home to countless rare and irreplaceable flora and fauna. The region is vulnerable to the impacts of global crises stemming from climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss. (ANI)
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