NEGOTIATIONS with Tehran to secure safe passage for Philippine-bound oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz are "feasible," but the government should also push to keep any transit fees minimal to prevent spikes in domestic fuel prices, analysts said Tuesday.
"Engaging Iran to secure safe passage for Philippine-bound oil tankers is a pragmatic step to manage near-term supply risks, given the country’s heavy reliance on Middle East crude and the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz in global oil flows," Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion told The Manila Times.
"Any disruption, even temporary, can quickly feed into higher domestic fuel prices, with knock‑on effects on inflation, transport costs, and household spending," he added.
From a geopolitical perspective, Asuncion said this approach "reflects issue‑specific diplomacy rather than a shift in strategic alignment."
"While the Philippines is a US treaty ally, it is not a party to the conflict, and safeguarding civilian energy supplies is a legitimate national interest," the analyst said.
"At the same time, the episode highlights the need to reduce long‑term vulnerability through greater energy diversification, stronger buffer stocks, and accelerated investment in alternative energy sources," he added.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael Ricafort told The Times that the Philippines should also seek to keep transit fees minimal to prevent spikes in domestic fuel prices.
"This is a prudent and urgent measure amid the need to secure more petroleum supply, as part of state of energy emergency already done by other countries around the world such as India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand," Ricafort said.
"Though Iran signaled that there could be a toll fee that could increase shipping costs, better to negotiate minimal toll fee for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz," he added.
Chester Cabalza, security analyst and president and founder of the Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, agreed that the Philippines must reach out to Iran for the passage of Philippines-bound oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the two countries' "good relations."
"The Philippines has robust bilateral relations with Iran, shown with the increasing number of medical and dentistry Iranian students in Philippine top universities," Cabalza told The Times.
Political analyst Froilan Calilung, meanwhile, described the Philippines’ engagement with Iran as "a de-risking strategy designed to decouple national energy security from regional military tensions."
"By pursuing high-level diplomatic talks, the administration is attempting to leverage the country’s non-belligerent status to secure 'non-hostile' classification for its vessels — thereby ensuring the survival of its economy without compromising its defense treaty with the United States," Calilung told The Times.
With 98 percent of crude oil imports passing through the Middle East, Calilung said the Philippines was a "hostage to geography."
"Securing the Strait of Hormuz is not a choice but a necessity to prevent a projected 50 percent price hike in essential commodities like rice, pork and chicken," he said.
Calilung, who teaches political science at the University of Santo Tomas, said the Philippines was successfully differentiating between military alliance and economic participation.
"While maintaining its 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the US, the administration is making it clear that 'war was never in the Philippines' interest,'" the analyst said.
"This 'middle-of-the-road' approach allows Manila to talk to Tehran for trade safety without violating its commitments to Washington," he added.
The analyst also said the president's declaration of a state of national energy emergency served as the legal anchor for these talks.
He said it shifted the narrative from "foreign intervention" to "emergency resource procurement," giving the government the mandate to bypass standard private-sector limitations and engage in government-to-government negotiations.
"Analytically, the risk is not just oil; it is labor. As a major provider of global seafarers, the Philippines has a unique humanitarian leverage. Protecting Philippine-bound tankers inherently protects Filipino lives, providing a moral and political shield," Calilung said.
He added that Marcos' order to Foreign Affairs Secretary Theresa Lazaro to negotiate with Iran marked a shift from a reactive foreign policy to a proactive "chief architect" role.
"Success depends on whether Iran accepts the Philippines' neutrality as genuine and whether the US views these 'non-hostile' negotiations as a necessary exception for a regional ally's economic sanctioned state like Iran," he said.
