A series of newly established accounts on the prediction market Polymarket placed highly precise, timely wagers concerning a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran on April 7, leading to hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits.
The bets were placed despite a lack of public indicators that a ceasefire deal was imminent, and even as President Donald Trump's rhetoric had sharply escalated just hours before the two-week truce was announced on Tuesday.
Earlier that day, Trump had issued a stark warning on social media, saying that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran failed to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 pm ET deadline.
An examination of publicly accessible blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, reveals that at least 50 distinct accounts, or digital wallets, made substantial "Yes" bets on Tuesday.
This occurred prior to Trump's announcement of the ceasefire via a Truth Social post at about 6.30pm ET.
Notably, these were the inaugural bets made by these specific wallets.
One of the wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0 per cent to 100 per cent chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.
Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.
Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump’s post, made $31,908 of “Yes” bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for “Yes” at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.
There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat — a phenomenon his critics have derided as “Trump Always Chickens Out,” or TACO.
While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as “disputed,” given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.
Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform.
Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.
Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets.
Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.
Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms.
“This is why these markets need regulation,” said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry’s regulations.
“We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”
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