MANILA, Philippines — A new study showed that tobacco harm strategies led to the substantial decline in adult smoking in New Zealand.
The study, published in June 2026, was conducted by three public health researchers: Robert Beaglehole, former director at the World Health Organization (WHO); Ruth Bonita, professor emerita at the University of Auckland; and Ben Youdan, an independent health advisor. It was published in the medical journal “The Lancet Regional Health,” showing that New Zealand saw progress in the decline of adult smoking rates.
The study showed that adult smoking rates plunged after 2018, with annual decline surging from 3.5 percent to 17.9 percent.
Before 2018, the country was making steady but slow progress, with the smoking rate dropping by about 3.5 percent each year. After 2018, that progress exploded to a 17.9 percent drop per year, citing the Ministry of Health’s move to back vapes as a far less harmful option and a pathway out of smoking.
Without the move, they claim, the country’s vision of a “Smokefree 2025” would have remained a vision. The research further claimed that nicotine was not responsible for most tobacco-related diseases but rather suggested cutting exposure to combustible tobacco, which they claim accounts for most of the harm.
New Zealand started its fight against smoking in 2004 by banning smoking in public places, adding warning labels, and raising cigarette taxes. While these rules helped, smoking rates dropped much more slowly back then compared to the massive decline seen after 2018. Today, New Zealand's smoking rate has leveled off at under 7 percent. The remaining smokers are mostly older, long-term users, with indigenous Māori communities being disproportionately affected.
However, the study showed major progress here, too: smoking rates among Māori cut in half in just six years.
The researchers concluded that to keep this progress going, the focus must remain on stopping people from smoking tobacco. They emphasized that future success will require kind, targeted support for the communities that need it most, alongside smart laws that regulate all nicotine products based on how harmful they actually are.
The findings suggested that combining tobacco control measures with harm reduction strategies can help further reduce smoking. The researchers recommended that public health strategies focus on cutting exposure to combustible tobacco, which accounted for tobacco-related diseases.
“Maintaining a clear focus on reducing harm from combustible tobacco will be critical to sustaining progress as smoking prevalence declines,” the authors said.
