I AM in Cebu City today (Tuesday, June 23) to moderate The Manila Times’ Cebu business forum, under the theme, “Padayon Cebu: Accelerating momentum, securing prosperity.” Padayon, as I understand it, is word in the Cebuano, Hiligaynon and Waray languages meaning “move forward,” or “keep going,” as an exhortation to persevere in the face of challenges. That is an entirely appropriate sentiment for today’s forum, although the reason I think so is probably not as optimistic as the views today’s esteemed speakers and guests may have.
In the past, our forums, no matter the topic, have had a familiar feel; very upbeat and congratulatory, highlighting strengths and opportunities, sidestepping controversy and casting problems that absolutely cannot be ignored as manageable challenges. I expect today’s forum will be much of the same, and that is not entirely a bad thing. After all, no one is going to be inspired to take in new ideas, to innovate and to put their hearts and minds into their work by presentations and discussions that leave them feeling discouraged.
However, there is a fine line between “not discouraging stakeholders” and “blowing sunshine up everyone’s skirt.” From my point of view, avoiding problematic realities is a recipe for failure in whatever other ambitions those stakeholders express and want to pursue. That is why I have apparently developed a bit of a grim reputation among some of our forum participants. I not only see the elephant in the room; I’ll give it a name and call it out. And I don’t wear a skirt.
As what I am going to write below may be a little rough for some people here today, allow me to offer a qualifying context. I believe today’s forum is very important, not just for the sake of Cebu, but for the country at large. Real economic prosperity and the aspiration for “middle income” status for the Philippines will only come if economic productivity is diversified and diffused across the entire country, and as the Philippines’ second city, Cebu is where that should start. It already has over the past couple of decades that I’ve been here, to some extent, but there is so much more potential that remains untapped. Cebu needs to transform from being an “alternative” to Mega Manila, to being a center of development, growth and excellence for its’ own sake. And it needs to transform in a way that lifts the entire region along with it.
In order for that to happen, Cebu needs to confront a number of critical structural problems. While all of them are not fully within Cebu’s ability to resolve, the leadership of the city and the province need to take the lead in finding solutions.
Energy
Early this year, the electricity demand growth for Greater Cebu was estimated at about 150 megawatts (MW) per year for the foreseeable future, and that may increase as economic activity grows. Based on information from sources in the generation and transmission sectors, Cebu already has a shortage of electricity supply, and will need 1,000 MW or more of new capacity within the next two years.
Some of this can be made up with by the ongoing expansion of grid interconnections with the rest of the Visayas that are being built by the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP), but those have been hamstrung by right-of-way conflicts and balky permitting processes at the local government unit level. Resolving those issues, for which there are already applicable laws and regulations that are only being casually followed, can be accomplished relatively quickly with a bit of political will.
That will help Cebu’s energy security deficit, but relying on inter-island grid connections is not going to solve the overall problem. Some new generation capacity is already in the works, such as the planned expansion of the Therma Visayas coal plant in Toledo, and the recent approval of an 80MW wind installation in Alegria, but much more is needed.
Transport infrastructure
Cebu City in particular has earned the dubious distinction of being one of the very few cities in the world to completely fail at developing a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system, one of the easiest and most cost-effective mass public transportation models available. Sure, a part of the planned system is now operating on a limited basis, but it is an embarrassing shadow of what could have and should have been.
To be fair, the failure of the BRT was not entirely Cebu’s fault. Even though the funding and the oversight of the overall plan was contracted at the national government level, the national government did a very poor job of supporting the local governments in carrying it out. Nevertheless, the project is here, the challenges to realizing it are here, and the solutions to overcoming those challenges must begin here.
Traffic congestion and inadequate public transportation infrastructure are already problems in Metro Cebu; those of us who visit occasionally from Metro Manila feel right at home here in that respect. But unlike Metro Manila, Cebu has not yet reached a point of no return where congestion is a problem that can no longer be solved. It will, however, if aggressive action is not taken now, because the expected growth of the city and surrounding region will only make the problem steadily worse.
Solid waste management
At the moment, Metro Cebu is experiencing a legitimate emergency in solid waste management, as a result of the disaster at the Binaliw landfill in January, which closed that site and compelled the city to transport municipal solid waste to a site some 60 kilometers away, at a cost of about P3,500 per metric ton, or so I’ve heard. The city of Cebu alone produces about 1,000 metric tons of waste per day, so this is a financial as well as a logistical nightmare.
There have been some solutions offered, such as establishing a waste-to-energy facility and better enforcement of waste segregation regulations, but these will only address part of the problem. A multi-pronged approach is needed, and it is needed immediately, because just as with the electricity supply and transportation challenges, it will only grow worse as time goes on if something is not done now.
There are a number of other issues as well, but from my perspective these are the Big Three that the government, business and community leadership in Cebu needs to address before any of the ambitions that we will hear about today can be realized. I hope our speakers have answers, because I am going to ask those questions.
ben.kritz@manilatimes.net
Bluesky: @benkritz.bsky.social
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