The rich southern state of Johor has always been a strong fortress for the United Malays National Organisation (Umno), the oldest political party in the country. Not surprisingly, Johor is also the historic birthplace of Umno.
Remarkably, it was also the first state to have its own constitution promulgated way back in 1895. In fact, it has always been a progressive minded state and its famous "Bangsa Johor" concept actually came about in 1920 when its then ruler, Sultan Sir Ibrahim, felt the need to give thanks and unite the various races who had come together to open up Johor. Clearly, Johor just isn't another ordinary state!
So, recently, when PN chairperson Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin courted controversy in Johor by "issuing" a fatwa (an Islamic edict) that it's haram (sinful) to vote for Pakatan Harapan; it might not have gone down well with many locals including some Umno supporters.
Umno of course is a coalition partner of Pakatan Harapan in PM Anwar Ibrahim's unity government. Actually, as a native Johorean, shouldn't the ex-Menteri Besar understand the local sentiment better?
Yet, incredibly the mood among the PH-BN faithful in the southern state on the eve of the fateful twin by-elections in Simpang Jeram and Pulai on 9 September 2023 must have been anything but upbeat.
Maybe, it could have been the fear of a backlash from voters over the DNAA (discharge not amounting to an acquittal) granted to Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi in relation to 47 corruption-linked charges barely a week earlier!
Thus, with PN appearing to have the upper hand - and the momentum - many unity government supporters must have been down on their knees, praying for the best - yet, quietly fearing the worst. Inexplicably, it would seem, they had become underdogs in their own backyard!
In fact, even on the polling day itself, especially in Pulai, the signs were ominous; with "menacing skies and strong winds" as was reported by Malaysiakini - threatening to undo all the hard work of the late Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub, the former minister of Domestic Trade and Costs of Living; the tenacious and tireless torch bearer for the unity government's popular Rahmah initiative.
To add to the misery the relatively low voter turnout of 60.2% at Simpang Jeram and an even lower voter turnout of 46.8% at Pulai must have caused many anxious hearts inside the PH-BN camp to sink; after all, the experts had boldly predicted that a low turnout will favour PN. But as we always discover in hindsight, nothing is predictable in politics!
And while the weather was wreaking havoc in southern Johor there was another kind of havoc being unleashed at the ballot boxes. By nightfall, news started to filter in that somehow PH-BN had managed to snatch a fairly comfortable yet unlikely victory both in Simpang Jeram and Pulai.
For the record, for the Simpang Jeram state seat, PH candidate Nazri Abdul Rahman managed to garner 13,844 votes against his opponent from PN, Dr Mazri Yahya who managed 10,330; the winning margin of 3,514 being 1,100 more than in GE15.
Meanwhile for the Pulai parliamentary seat PH candidate Suhaizan Kaiat managed to poll 48,283 to overcome his opponent from PN, Zulkilfi Jaafar who polled 29,642; the winning margin being 18,641. However, apparently, PN had managed to reduce the winning majority by around 12,000 votes.
In the end, for all the sabre-rattling and grand posturing by PN stalwarts such as Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, they had to quietly retreat; the only "takeaway" from their trip down to Johor being that they had managed to bring down the victory margin in Pulai.
In fact, in Simpang Jeram, PN seemed bent on proving that the "green wave" was poised to roll into Malaysia's wealthy southern state; just like what it had threatened to do in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan in the recent six state elections - with some degree of success.
But there, on the periphery of Muar town, also known as “Bandar Maharani”, famous for its seafood otak-otak, the tables were turned in spectacular fashion as the confident PN candidate from PAS was silenced after results from polling streams started trickling in.
Furthermore judging from the increase in the victory margin for the PH candidate, it became quite obvious that many of Umno's loyal followers, if not all, together with the Chinese electorate there had actually joined hands to secure a morale-boosting victory for PH.
But surely, the key battleground had to be in the south, in Pulai, a suburb of the sprawling, modern city of Johor Bahru; where the stakes were higher. For the unity government it was virtually a do-or-die mission in the context of retaining its two thirds majority in parliament which, in truth, has always been hanging by the thread!
With the victory in Pulai, many will feel that justice was served as the late Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub had literally given his life to ensure that all Malaysians regardless of their political leaning - and especially those from the low-income group - could afford decent, affordable meals daily.
Still, it would have been a bitter pill to swallow for PAS which might have harboured plans of finally establishing a foothold in this rich state.
On the face of it, the historic twin triumph may be partly attributable to the late Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub's stature and huge legacy plus some support from Umno-BN supporters. But PN's growing acceptance among the Malays wouldn't have gone unnoticed; just like in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.
Ironically, the results may also have been influenced by the harsh weather conditions which had contributed to the lowest election turnout in the history of Malaysia. Interestingly, had PH-BN's opponents emerged triumphant in Pulai, wouldn't they have boasted that the bad weather was "godsend"?
In fact, for PH-BN, there was the niggling fear that some disgruntled Chinese and Indian voters in Pulai would go out to teach the unity government a lesson for the slow progress on “reforms” and other unfulfilled promises; but maybe the inclement weather had forced them to stay indoors. This may have turned out to be a blessing because PN supporters were also unable to get to some polling centres due to the same reason!
But what if the weather had been kind? And what if the voter turnout had been 70% and not 46.8%? Wouldn't the outcome of the polls been different?
In the end, maybe, the heavy downpour from the heavens above was "godsend" after all - not for PN (PAS) - but for PH-BN!
As for PN, will the double setback in Johor prompt their leadership to sit up and review its trademark "race and religion-centric" approach, that has proven to be highly effective especially in the northern and east coast "Malay belt" states? Or will it turn on the screws even tighter?
Whatever it is, the strategy appears to be alienating the non-Malays more and more, compounding the ethnic division in the country.
For PH and BN, perhaps they have to work harder together as one unit, especially at the grassroots level - if the unity government is to survive, at least, until the next general election.
Indeed, for all we know, the next time around, there may not be any godsend rain from the "heavens" to save them!
JK Joseph is a content creator under the Newswav Creator programme, where you get to express yourself, be a citizen journalist, and at the same time monetize your content & reach millions of users on Newswav. Log in to creator.newswav.com and become a Newswav Creator now!
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