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By P Gunasegaram
Did Anwar know about the Johor dissolution earlier?
On June 1, a public holiday to commemorate the birthday of the king who hails from Johor, the Johor state assembly was dissolved with the consent of the regent with elections to be held within 60 days, the state’s Menteri Besar announced.
What does this mean for Umno’s position in the Madani government, not just at the Johor polls where it looks like they will contest all seats, but for parliamentary elections and other state polls? And when are they going to be called? Simultaneously?
Given that the economic situation can worsen if the Iran war is prolonged and oil prices remain unsustainably high, would Anwar call early elections? Can he go to full term, which will give Parti Bersama Malaysia time to organise itself?
The Madani government can decide for Parliament and all the states it controls in Peninsular Malaysia but it can’t for those controlled by PN who may not want to play ball. And what about Malacca and Negeri Sembilan?
The burning question is, did prime minister Anwar Ibrahim know about the dissolution of the Johor assembly ahead of time? Whichever the answer, yes or no, does not put Anwar in a good light, indicating he is losing grip of the political situation.
If it is “no”, then Anwar is dancing the tango to Umno’s tune forced upon him. There could well be a rift between him and Umno’s supremo Ahmad Zahid Hamidi which will jeopardise cooperation between Umno and Pakatan Harapan under Madani.
Left in limbo
If “yes”, despite his earlier bluster, he has succumbed to Umno’s position that the Johor assembly must be dissolved with the question of cooperation over seat allocations left in limbo but leaning heavily towards Umno’s position that it will contest all in Johor.
Johor MB Onn Hafiz Ghazi said on his Facebook page on May 16: "After discussing with the party leadership, we have decided that Johor Barisan will contest in all 56 seats in the state." You can’t be clearer than that. Yesterday, Ahmad Zahid confirmed that position.
Anwar, in a reply earlier, vowed to hit back strongly and fight by putting Harapan candidates in all seats. DAP’s Anthony Loke was similarly defiant, saying they will dissolve Negeri Sembilan’s assembly and contest all seats in return.
But he was in typical fashion, noncommittal about the Johor dissolution yesterday. Sidestepping a question on snap elections he said: “I’m focusing on my job. The problem is that some of these people don’t think of this. We should focus on the job.
“That’s their (Johor’s) decision (to hold snap polls). We have our priorities, we have to focus on our work,” he was quoted as saying by Bernama.
Anwar on a visit to Sabah announced an increase in grants to Sabah to RM1.5 billion a couple of days before the Johor announcement, indicating imminent elections yet again.
He may not have known about the Johor dissolution. If he did not, it is very serious and may mark the beginning of permanent rupture between Harapan and Umno.
That the palace has given its blessings to the dissolution ahead of time means that Umno may be closer to the king then Anwar himself suspects. This raises the question of who may be asked to form the government in the highly likely event of a hung parliament at GE16.
Blindsided?
By Umno blindsiding Anwar over the Johor dissolution, he may have no choice but to go it alone with Harapan in GE16, not an easy route given that Rafizi Ramli and his Bersama are making waves and likely to challenge key PKR seats.
If he knew that the dissolution was coming, he can’t be under any illusion that there will be seats allocated to Harapan in the Johor state elections - the Johor MB, reputed to be close to the palace, has said his piece and that’s likely to be the outcome.
If Anwar keeps his earlier promise, that will mean an open head-on battle with Umno/BN with Bersama mounting a serious flank attack, all no good for Anwar and PKR. But, ominously for some, great for Pas as alternative Malay votes get divided.
Delaying the elections will only make matters worse, giving Bersama time to get ready and the possibility of a shaky parliament easily open to challenge. He has little option but to call for early elections - it may even coincide with some state elections.
But it will be an election in which Harapan is likely to do worse - much worse - than in GE15 both at Parliament and state levels. Harapan and especially PKR is likely to be heavily bruised at the least and may even collapse at worst.
A one-term pm
So may Umno, and with Bersatu on the decline, it’s the moon that could rise and shine brightly. Watch out for Pas at GE16. It may not win outright but it will definitely be stronger, perhaps even stronger than ever before.
The eventual outcome, Anwar may likely be a one-term PM.
It’s cruel to say he had it coming but that is the score - Umno in the short time that it has been out of power since 2018 barring, has managed to topple alternative governments through political machinations.
An Umno government headed by Ismail Sabri Yaakob came into power in August 2021 but was soundly defeated at the November 2022 polls, getting just 26 seats down from 54 in 2018 (30 including BN components) but ended up kingmakers nevertheless. They have undue influence in Anwar’s Madani cabinet, at the expense of even PKR.
Sticking with friends has proven better yet again than courting historical enemies. It’s an expensive lesson for Anwar. The pity is he had many opportunities to learn earlier but the Umno DNA in him prevailed at a substantial cost to him - and the nation.
(P Gunasegaram says sometimes things get worse before they get better.)
P Gunasegaram (t.p.guna@gmail.com) is a content creator under the Newswav Creator programme, where you get to express yourself, be a citizen journalist, and at the same time monetize your content & reach millions of users on Newswav. Log in to creator.newswav.com and become a Newswav Creator now!
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