With GE16 looming ever nearer, has an increasingly emboldened UMNO already begun stealing the thunder from Anwar and Pakatan Harapan in a calculated manoeuvre for a “reverse takeover” of Putrajaya?
Probably, the first question critics will ask is: are Zahid's “Rumah Bangsa” and “Grand Collaboration” initiatives truly designed to unite Malay-Muslims – or is it also an ingenious strategy for his party to win as many parliamentary seats as possible in the next general elections? Surely the end game will be to form the next federal government, but this time relegating PH to a junior rank – in what would be a classic reversal of roles!
Zahid may be aware that his party is no match for the popular and politically savvy PAS – especially in the Malay heartlands. Hadi Awang's ambitious party is widely expected to eclipse its achievement of securing well over 40 parliamentary seats in the last general elections and is now reportedly targeting as high as 80 seats.
Screenshot of headline and image from FMT.
In fact, hasn't PAS itself shrewdly taken over the “driver's seat” in Perikatan Nasional by literally elbowing out Muhyiddin? Of course, things have been made easier for it by Bersatu, which is now in the throes of a major internal implosion – after the sacking of its ex-strongman Hamzah Zainudin and several leaders aligned to him.
Perhaps, Bersatu’s misfortune was the “lucky break” that some in PAS were quietly praying for?
Meanwhile, Zahid would be faced with two potential scenarios: assuming UMNO-BN manages to secure more than 60 seats they could still form the next government with PH and GPS. But crucially, by virtue of having more seats than Anwar's battered coalition, wouldn't it be a foregone conclusion that the UMNO president would demand greater concessions – especially the all-important Prime Minister and Finance Minister posts?
Furthermore, with MCA and MIC unlikely to recapture their former influence and popularity, could it be that secretly – and perhaps begrudgingly – UMNO may also be prepared to replace them with a “more submissive” DAP? But of course, the burning question is: will DAP have the “appetite” to serve under an UMNO Prime Minister – especially in the face of the backlash from Chinese and Indian voters bent on letting their disenchantment be known at the ballot box?
Non-Malays ready to ditch PKR and DAP!
Another reason why UMNO has “upped the ante” on Anwar lately may be because it senses that he has lost the plot. In truth, isn't PKR at sixes and sevens now with its confidence badly shaken – as was crudely exposed in the recent leak of its internal analysis relating to its chances in the next general elections?
With Bersatu and PKR in a meltdown, and DAP stuck in quicksand, is the next general elections headed for a “titanic” clash between a resurgent UMNO and PAS?
In reality, though, for all the talk of unifying the ummah (Malay-Muslims), UMNO's top brass probably knows that they will still need the support of the non-Malays – something they became accustomed to and accepted in their previous 60-year reign – in their quest to capture Putrajaya and form a stable government?
Could this be the reason why Zahid has been sending out “mixed signals” lately?
As was evidenced in the recent Negeri Sembilan debacle, didn't the UMNO president appear to tacitly justify its 14 state assemblymen’s “rebellious” stance, yet – virtually in the same breath – declare that his party still supports the PH government there? While it may have sounded oxymoronic to the neutrals, perhaps those familiar with UMNO's famed modus operandi would have been able to read between the lines.
Moreover, Zahid and his party lieutenants also probably know that PH will never be accepted by PAS as long as DAP is part of the coalition. In such a scenario, wouldn't PH be forced to continue its collaboration with UMNO – despite the ignominy of now having to play a bridesmaid's role – as failure to do so could push it back into the political wasteland?
Didn't Zahid also say that UMNO will be going “solo” in the next general elections – yet cryptically add that the party must still be open to political pacts?
Ultimately, it should be obvious by now that all UMNO wants is to be the dominant party in the land – dictating terms and controlling everything from political narratives to the country's purse. Yet, a critical question remains: how will PMX, himself an astute political warhorse, respond to what is essentially a direct threat to his own leadership and legacy?
Or will the unthinkable happen, where in a desperate survival move, his party decouples from DAP and pivots to PAS? With DAP out of the equation, wouldn't the Islamist party be only too willing to allow Anwar a second term as prime minister?
Would that twist in the tale dash UMNO's hopes?
Possibly not, as GPS – the perennial kingmaker – may yet demand the last word. Still, with things expected to be fluid and frenzied post-GE16, isn't it likely that there would be yet another hung parliament, with probably a bigger shock awaiting everyone?
Main information source: FMT, UMNO Online, Focus Malaysia and NST
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