My prediction for snap elections right after Hari Raya as Newswav article titled “Snap elections after Hari Raya” dated 24 February 2026 proved to be false like many of the government promises of changes and reforms.
I have only an old scratched up and crazed crystal ball , social media, and keeping my ears close to the political ground to gaze into the political fog for my prediction but the government had the numbers, money, and power to call for a snap election then.
Today, the government’s numbers, money, and power have diminished and are not assured anymore. A day is a long time in politics but months , evolution happens.
Rafizi Ramli and his cohort of eight PKR MPs are de facto opposition MPs and will be in a new party that Rafizi claimed will be formed in June.
Sabah wants their 40% revenue entitlement but the government is trying to wrangle out of it through the courts. Sabahans will not let this go without a fight and their support in parliament and the coming GE will be jeopardized if they don’t get that 40%.
The government coffers are running dry due to subsidizing ever increasing fuel prices for Budi Madani Ron 95 and diesel . Last month it was bleeding money at RM4 Billion as compared to January subsidies of RM0.7 Billion, a nearly six-fold increase.
The reduction from 300 to 200 liters of subsidized RON95 did not cause too much alarm or ruckus from the public but it will surely dial down the already dwindling support. The lack of consternation could be because the people are used to the frequent U-turns from the government.
Any hopes of more SARA (Sumbagan Asas Rumah) to combat the present ever-increasing cost of living has gone with the wind due to the Iranian war which is now a war of lies and who blinks first in stalling the negotiations to reopen the Straits of Hormuz.
Negeri Sembilan current minority government has thrown a spanner in the power structure of the Madini government and could alter the present status quo. UMNO obviously sees it as an opportunity to usurp the state government and run the state for the coming state and GE elections.
Incumbency is always an advantage when it comes to state and national elections. You can indirectly get the state machinery to work for you.
The current incumbent of MACC , Azam Baki, will be replaced by retired High Court judge, Datuk Seri Abdul Halim Aman. This pacifies a lot of the “Anyone but Azam” crowd and for now Prime Minister Anwar does not need to appear powerless and anxious about reappointing him.
However , both Anwar and Azam are not in the clear, as the report of Azam Baki shareholding allegation has not been made public and the “Tangkap Azam Baki” fervor is still fiery and vocal. Anwar’s position and power will be severely tested if things don’t turn out well for Azam.
DAP’s crunch time on 12 July “ special congress” approaches but it will likely come and go without much of a whimper. They have lots to lose if they leave the government for it will show they have not done their job while in government.
Meanwhile, DAP’s tone on reforms or lack of it from Anthony Loke since the “special congress “announcement has been mild and reconciliatory. Even the congress has been relegated to a national conference as dictated by the party constitution. They have left most of their teeth gnashing and howling to the youth wing, unfortunately a wimpy compared to UMNO youth wing.
Unemployment has gone up . Fuel prices are up and up with little chance of coming down to pre-Iranian war levels quickly. Cost of living has gone up. My taugeh went up 100%, from 50 sen to RM1.
UMNO’s membership and confidence has gone up with the return of some of its previous disenfranchised stalwarts. Hamzah Zainudin with his 18 MPs has upped his ante by cozying to PAS and hoping to reset himself as head of the opposition again .
A poster claimed GE16 will be held on 24 October 2026 , and ,although the Election Commission has stated it is a fake, it has set tongues wagging and cause tons of greenhouse gas emissions through social media comments. It may have to do with bellwether states Johor , Melaka, and Sarawak having state elections due next year and partly to defer costs. For Anwar Ibrahim, it may not be about that few hundred million saved to run these state elections,
He may ask for another 100 litres to be taken away , get his ministers to have another token pay cut, hold no more open houses, set air conditioning temperatures at government buildings to 26°C and get male staff to wear short sleeve shirts, and give more discounts for rail travel.
These won’t make a whole hill of beans against high fuel costs and election funding. But it is a good perception that he is doing something to hold the economy and country together and perception is everything in politics. As one minister got pilloried when she proposed rising up earlier to beat the traffic ,she defensively said it's better than nothing.
The Prime Minister’s better option to remain in power after GE16 is to take a chance to ride out this period of difficulties , hope for better times ahead and Trump not messing up on the financial structure of the world . He has after all seen to the breakup of Berjaya, Ringgit strengthened from a high of RM4.70 to below RM4 and PAS losing its earlier toxic voice and rhetoric.
My crystal ball has been polished to a shine and I foresee the government going full term and GE16 happening around the end of 2027.
My disclaimer warning if wrong again:- This is a prediction based on present conditions and information and can change due to future circumstances and conditions beyond my control(sounds similar to the promised reforms).
Koo Wee Hon (kooweehon@gmail.com) is a content creator under the Newswav Creator programme, where you get to express yourself, be a citizen journalist, and at the same time monetize your content & reach millions of users on Newswav. Log in to creator.newswav.com and become a Newswav Creator now!
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