Anwar, as we all know, is facing pressure after pressure to call for snap elections ASAP.
The latest to pressure him is DAP Youth, who have urged Anwar to dissolve Parliament and call for snap elections that will coincide with the Johor state election, if UMNO decides to go solo in the next Johor election and contests all seats without coming to any seat-sharing arrangement with PH.
In response, UMNO Youth leader Akmal Saleh added pressure to Anwar by daring DAP Youth to quit DAP’s partnership in BN-led state governments and push its leaders to dissolve Parliament if it is serious about testing its political strength.
“Don’t just talk about pushing to dissolve Parliament, withdraw support from the state governments formed together with BN today as well. Withdraw support in Perak. Withdraw support in Pahang.
“Let us fight in a gentlemanly manner and return the mandate to the people… If you truly want to test your strength, let’s open up the arena. Bring it on,” he said in a Facebook post.
The back-and-forth between DAP and UMNO is just the latest pressure that Anwar is facing to call for a general election. Beyond that, he is also being pressured by the situation in Negeri Sembilan, the looming economic crisis linked to the Iran war, internal rebellion within PKR, DAP’s threat to withdraw support for his administration in July, signs of waning confidence from the royalty in Pahang and Selangor, the dispute between the Sarawak state government and Petronas, as well as Sabah’s dissatisfaction over the delay in the return of its 40 percent tax revenue as ordered by the courts — all of which are contributing to mounting pressure on him to call for a snap election as soon as possible.
When there are so many things pressuring Anwar to call for elections, then why is he hesitating in calling for snap elections, you ask? Why not just dissolve Parliament and call for elections today itself, and relieve himself of the various pressures that are facing him?
Well, if you ask me, I believe that calling for elections is already on Anwar's mind.
He is just looking for the right time to call it.
So when is the right time for him to call it, you ask?
Well, if you ask me, I don't think even Anwar knows exactly what the right time is to call for snap elections — he just knows that he will know it is the right time when he sees a sign.
What is the sign that he is aiming to see before he calls for elections, you ask?
The sign he is desperately looking for before he calls for elections is the sign of victory.
Right now, I think that Anwar knows that if he calls for elections, he will surely lose.
I think he also knows that he is not going to obtain a convincing victory no matter when he calls for elections.
But just because he may not be able to secure a convincing win does not mean he cannot win at all. If the signs are favourable, he could still emerge from GE16 with a narrow victory.
So if you ask me, I truly believe that the sign that Anwar is waiting to appear is the one that will give him a glimmer of hope that he can come out of GE16 with at least a decent chance of winning, even if it is by a narrow margin.
That sign that he is waiting for can be anything.
It could, for example, be something as stark as the death of someone. A death of a major political figure occurring in the near future could shift Anwar’s prospects from deeply negative to slightly positive.
The Iran war ending could also improve his chances of winning GE16. If the Iran war ends in the next couple of months, people will immediately become more optimistic about the future, and a positive outlook of the future will most definitely improve Anwar’s prospect of electoral victory.
Putting one and two together, the death of Donald Trump might also be the break that Anwar is looking for. Trump has faced multiple assassination attempts so far. If one succeeds in the next one or two months, the Iran War might end, which in turn will brighten the prospect of electoral victory for Anwar.
Infighting might also occur in the opponent's camp. Maybe PAS and Hamzah's reset movement will get into a loggerhead. Maybe Hamzah and Dr Sam might not be able to agree on who is to be the opposition's PM candidate.
There are also rumours that Bersatu is in talks about striking an alliance with PH. I am not really sure how Azmin and Anwar getting back together is going to improve Anwar's electoral prospects, but who knows — maybe it will.
If America and China go to war in the next couple of months, it would be favourable sign to Anwar too. If these superpowers take the warpath (may it never happen), I believe that voters will want Anwar to be the one to lead the country. Foreign affairs has always been Anwar's forte. If navigating through testy international affairs becomes the most important thing in voters' minds, between Anwar, Dr Sam, Hamzah, Zahid Hamidi, Khairy, Tok Mat and Rafizi, the one that voters will most likely want to steer the country will most definitely be Anwar.
Anyway, these are some of the examples that could alter the equation and make Anwar believe that he has a chance of victory.
I truly believe that it is only if Anwar sees such a sign that he will call for elections.
But as much as Anwar wants to hold out until he sees such a sign, it is not the case that he can hold out forever.
Anwar, after all, is not the only one that can call for elections.
UMNO, DAP and GPS can force an election to occur too, if they withdraw support from the unity government.
At the rate that the quarrel between DAP and UMNO in several states is peaking, I don't think that Anwar has more than a few months before he will be forced to call for elections, whether he likes it or not.
Malaysia might not be in the World Cup, but amongst those who are praying for a very exciting World Cup is probably Anwar.
If the World Cup that is going to start in a couple of weeks on June 11 is an exciting affair, then Anwar can be assured that he will be able to postpone calling for elections until August. When the World Cup is what takes centre stage in everyone's mind, no politicians will want to annoy the people by calling for an election then.
But in August, if current trends persist, I believe that Anwar will be under tremendous pressure to call for a snap election.
By then, the Melaka and Johor state elections will be due, and the Perlis and Negeri Sembilan state governments, which are running with questionable mandates, will likely join Melaka and Johor in calling for elections as well.
Sarawak, which is also due for elections soon, might also decide to join the four Semenanjung states and dissolve its state assembly.
If the relationship between DAP and Umno continue to worsen, and cause BN and PH to split in such vulnerable states as Pahang and Perak, these two states might need to dissolve their state assembly and seek a fresh mandate too.
If four or five or seven states go to elections, I don't think that Anwar will be able to refuse to dissolve Parliament and call for snap elections.
But until the four or five or seven state elections are called, Anwar has time to wait for the winning sign to show.
A week, they say, is a long time in politics. 3 or 4 months, therefore, is an eternity — anything can happen between now and September.
All that Anwar has to do is hold out for as long as he can until the tides of fortune change, and if there is one thing that a battle-hardened veteran politician like Anwar can do, it is hold out under pressure.
A veteran politician is like a veteran soldier.
A new recruit might be pressured to take action when they are harassed by the situation, but a battle-hardened soldier can absorb far more punishment without reacting, while patiently waiting for the right moment to strike.
But as battle-hardened as Anwar may be, I still think he will be forced to call an election before the year ends, regardless of whether the winning sign he is looking for appears or not.
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