After PH suffered a decisive defeat in the Johor election last week, someone—I can't remember who—said that although PH lost in Johor because of the Onn Hafiz effect, it would still win the general election because no one can hold a candle to Anwar Ibrahim.
That is true.
But it is only true under the current circumstances.
If BN chooses to go solo in the general election, as it did in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections, and fields its current president, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, as its prime ministerial candidate, then yes, I think Anwar will come out on top too.
But if there is a coup within BN after the Negeri Sembilan election and Zahid is replaced by BN deputy president Mohamad Hasan, better known as Tok Mat, then all bets are off.
If you pit Tok Mat against Anwar, I would bet my last ringgit that Tok Mat is the one that comes out on top.
Ever since the attempted Negeri Sembilan coup involving the 14 BN assemblymen a few months ago, I have repeatedly argued that a power struggle is brewing within Umno and that Tok Mat is likely leading it.
Interestingly, DAP itself has repeatedly accused Tok Mat of being the person behind the Negeri Sembilan coup, and on that point, I think DAP is right.
In both Negeri Sembilan and later Johor, Zahid was probably not involved in what the respective state Umno leaderships were doing.
I believe Zahid was caught off guard by Johor's decision to hold an early election. Likewise, I suspect that he was not aware of the Negeri Sembilan's Umno Aduns attempted coup a couple of months ago, and I doubt he was involved in BN's decision to cooperate with PAS and PN in Negeri Sembilan last week.
Zahid, by the way, remains a deeply unpopular figure within both BN and among the public. In my view, he is holding on to the Umno presidency largely because of bureaucracy and technicalities.
In other words, Zahid is still president because Umno has not held party elections since 2023. Even in 2023, he arguably survived only because of the no-contest rule for the top posts.
Does Zahid know that Tok Mat is coming for him?
Of course he does.
If even I can smell that Tok Mat is gunning for him, surely Zahid knows it too.
So why hasn't Zahid done anything to stop him?
Well, here is the onion.
If Zahid openly moves against Tok Mat, he risks precipitating his own downfall.
There is a political game taking place between the two men. They are both positioning themselves to attack each other, without appearing to be openly attacking the other.
In this game, the first person to strike risks looking like the aggressor, and that person is more likely to lose the contest.
So if they are not openly attacking each other, what are they doing?
Like I said, they are positioning themselves.
Each is trying to convince Umno members that he is the leader who can deliver victory to both Umno and BN.
Between Zahid and Tok Mat, I believe it is Tok Mat who that is succeeding in convincing Umno members of his ability to lead Umno to victory.
Zahid may try to associate himself with BN's victory in Johor, and he will probably continue trying to claim credit if BN wins Negeri Sembilan and Melaka as well.
But I would bet my last ringgit that it is not working.
Within Umno, Zahid is increasingly associated with defeat, decline and embarrassment rather than victory, revival and glory.
If BN wins Negeri Sembilan, it will be Tok Mat, who used to serve as the Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar from 2004 until 2018 and is still serving as the Rantau assemblyman, who will be seen to be carrying the mark of Victory.
If BN then wins Melaka as well, many within Umno will conclude that BN can also win GE16.
And when Umno believes it can win the general election, it will naturally want to be led by the man who carries the sign of victory.
At that point, it may become obvious to many within BN and Umno that Zahid has to go and Tok Mat should take over.
How could that happen?
Well, Umno elections were originally scheduled for this year before they were postponed until after GE16.
What can be postponed can also be brought forward.
If BN wins both Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, I am reasonably confident that pressure will build to bring the Umno elections forward before GE16.
If that happens, I believe Zahid will bite the dust and Tok Mat will emerge as Umno's new president.
And if Tok Mat becomes Umno president, PH can no longer confidently argue that Anwar is the undisputed strongest prime ministerial candidate going into GE16.
If BN fields Tok Mat while PN puts forward Dr Samsuri Mokhtar, who is to say Anwar will even be the second most popular prime ministerial candidate?
For all we know, he could even find himself in third place.
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