Presently, the PMX led Madani Government holds a majority of 151 MPs in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat.
This majority is made up of the following coalitions and parties:
- Pakatan Harapan (PH): 77 seats
- Barisan Nasional (BN): 30 seats
- Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS): 23 seats
- Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS): 5 seats
- Direct Members / Other Allies: 16 seats
The remaining 71 seats are held by the opposition block and independents.
BN / UMNO just need to convince and `incentivise’ the 16 direct members / other allies, which is not a difficult task given that in Malaysia, money is the gatekeeper of politics and together with its 30 MP, the Madani government will be left with just 105 MPs, insufficient for PMX to continue leading and governing the government.
The Madani government will collapse immediately.
It is unlikely that PMX will agree to a vote of no confidence in Parliament to determine his support.
Highly likely, he will resolve to dissolve Parliament paving the way for the 16th GE to be held as soon as possible.
Isn’t it obvious to all that the moment UMNO /BN wins and win big on election night in Johor, calls or moves will be put into motion for them to withdraw support from the Madani government.
BN / UMNO will definitely push for the 16th GE to be held within the next 6 months hoping to ride on the coattails of their near annihilation of the political rivals in Johor.
Any sane political strategist will advise BN / UMNO not to delay it.
As the saying goes, strike when the iron is hot.
Any delay e.g continue with the Madani government until it completes its full term i.e by Feb 2028, another 18 months away, will only damp the momentum they enjoyed post the Johor elections.
BN / UMNO is not legally obligated or morally obliged to continue supporting the Madani government.
The collaboration between BN / UMNO and Pakatan in forming the Madani government was merely a marriage of convenience undertaken at the request of the previous YDP Agong.
PMX is obviously putting on a brave face when asked on the possibility of the next GE and his response was that his focus is on the economy, implementing reforms and managing global uncertainty which are far more important than early elections.
It is obvious that the decision doesn’t rest with him anymore.
His collaborative partner in the Madani government, BN / UMNO holds that trump card and it is them who will decide when to pull the handbrake on the tenure of the Madani government.
Definitely not Pakatan or its allies and Anwar.
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