Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh echoes what many Malays have long aspired to see: the return of Muafakat Nasional (MN). MN was a partnership between Umno and Pas. Though short-lived, it proved to be deeply feared by those in Pakatan Harapan (PH). At the height of MN, DAP top guns such as Lim Guan Eng and Nga Kor Ming had to resort to fear-mongering tactics to alarm non-Malays over the unity between the two largest Malay parties.
Judging from recent developments, MN may be poised for a comeback. Cracks within both the government and the opposition are widening.
The Anwar-led unity government is struggling to navigate the Najib issue. The former prime minister, while still behind bars, remains a political burden for Anwar. This is perhaps the price he has to pay for inviting Umno into government. While Umno may be helmed by Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, the president’s influence is insufficient to contain the growing discontent among grassroots members, many of whom see Najib’s trial as nothing more than an injustice against their former leader. Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah voiced out this sentiment by urging Umno to reconsider its position in the government.
Umno and DAP are already crossing swords on various issues. It is no secret that the two parties are unwilling collaborators, despite ongoing attempts to wash away such perceptions.
Now, the latest sentencing in the 1MDB saga has resulted in the largest fine the legal system has ever witnessed. Najib has been ordered to pay RM11 billion, in addition to serving another 15 years behind bars.
Questions inevitably arise: what happened to other alleged conspirators such as Jho Low and Jasmine Loo? Why have they not been charged? These burning questions should not be underestimated, as they weigh heavily on the minds of Najib’s supporters within Umno and beyond.
Zooming out, it is not only Umno members who are dissatisfied with the performance of the Madani government. The fact that Rafizi Ramli, the former economy minister himself, has been vocal in criticising the government’s actions—along with dissatisfaction among Chinese voters as evidenced in the Sabah state election—suggests that Malay discontent with Anwar is not without basis.
While Najib alone may not be a sufficient reason for Umno to exit the government, other developments could entice the party to chart a different course heading into GE16. In the northernmost state of Perlis, tensions are brewing between Pas and Bersatu.
The two main components of Perikatan Nasional (PN) have long kept their disagreements and skirmishes behind closed doors. However, the brewing conflict surfaced when Perlis Menteri Besar Mohd Shukri Ramli tendered his resignation (the official reason is health, but everyone knows this is not the case). Three Pas ADUNs were sacked for withdrawing their support for the MB. Bersatu, meanwhile, has yet to take action against its own five ADUNs.
It is an open secret that Muhyiddin Yassin is no longer viewed favourably by Pas. The Pagoh MP is besieged by his own party members who are loyal to Hamzah Zainuddin. Pas wants someone younger, fresher, and more energetic to lead the coalition. Muhyiddin, having already served as prime minister, does not appear eager to mount another challenge against PH.
Pas members know there is no shortage of ‘bullets’ they could fire at the government. Take, for example, the latest revelation by activist Chegubard that forced the Army chief to take leave pending investigation.
But without strong leadership, PN resembles a headless chicken. Pas would lose little should Bersatu falter. Bersatu lacks grassroots strength and party machinery. What Pas needs from Bersatu is its image: that of a professional, nationalist, moderate Malay party minus the orthodoxy. This image helped Pas emerge as the single largest party in Parliament.
Unfortunately for Bersatu, Umno can provide Pas with that very image. Umno possesses a cadre of frontline nationalist and professional leaders capable of appealing to both Malay and non-Malay voters who remain unconvinced by Pas.
Umno, too, stands to benefit from MN. At present, the party holds only 26 parliamentary seats. It would take just a few negotiation sessions with Pas for Umno to gain access to more Bersatu-held seats should Pas decide to exit PN.
The only real obstacle to MN may be Ahmad Zahid himself, who remains haunted by his Yayasan Akal Budi case. The Bagan Datuk MP has every personal reason to keep Anwar as prime minister after GE16. Only Anwar can keep him out of jail.
If Umno’s leadership were to revolt and choose MN, the party could still retain control of Perak, Negeri Sembilan and Pahang, on top of Johor and Melaka.
Should the two parties move forward, they could once again form the government with support from the Borneo blocs. DAP would likely be content retaining its 40 seats, but PKR, Amanah and Bersatu could face political extinction.
Ahmad Mustakim (ahmadmustakim.92@gmail.com) is a content creator under the Newswav Creator programme, where you get to express yourself, be a citizen journalist, and at the same time monetize your content & reach millions of users on Newswav. Log in to creator.newswav.com and become a Newswav Creator now!
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