Former DAP lawmaker Ong Kian Ming has sparked a major controversy by projecting a crushing defeat for Pakatan Harapan in the Johor state election – even boldly predicting a potential annihilation of Anwar's coalition at the hands of Barisan Nasional.
To many observers familiar with the state, a total wipeout may not materialize as we are talking about Johor here—not Sabah, not Kelantan. As such, to some it might even seem over-simplistic to jump to such a conclusion.
The reality is that non-Malays and urban voters in the state have virtually no viable, realistic alternative outside of DAP and PH. Even if these voters are “too tired” and disillusioned, many will still feel compelled to choose PH over a buoyant BN or a conservative PN-PAS alignment.
Johor MB Onn Hafiz’s recent bold declaration that he will not accept DAP into the state government could also prove costly. For sure, it has spooked large segments of the non-Malay electorate, who are now having serious second thoughts about voting for BN. After all, wouldn't a massive BN landslide victory effectively allow PAS an unsolicited “backdoor” entry into the state?
Add to that, recent news reports and images showing the popular Johor MB warmly welcoming PAS politicians is bound to ramp up the “fear factor” among Chinese and Indian voters in urban areas. Surely, there are bound to be many who will feel duty-bound to ensure their beloved metropolitan Johor Bahru doesn't end up resembling another Kota Bharu!
Then there is the key factor of Johoreans working across the causeway in Singapore; should they decide to turn out en masse to vote, BN may not have it that easy after all. This is especially true in the highly urbanized Greater Johor Bahru area, as well as larger towns like Batu Pahat, Muar, Kluang, and Segamat, where there is a massive concentration of well-educated non-Malay voters.
As things stand, UMNO may be riding high, backed by unexpected support from PAS. Furthermore, the fact that PN is only contesting 33 seats in this election gives UMNO an additional boost in confidence. But the question remains: what guarantee is there that PN supporters will blindly vote for BN?
While PAS hardcore loyalists might heed their leaders’ call, can the same be said of staunch Bersatu supporters? Many of them could well end up casting protest votes out of sheer anger and frustration. After all, isn't the opposition PN itself in shambles right now?
Then there is also the Muhyiddin Yassin factor. True, the former Johor MB may have lost some of his shine following the snub by the Islamist party at the expense of his ex-deputy Hamzah Zainudin, yet his lingering influence in his home state should never be underestimated.
Moreover, unlike previous state elections, this time the field is also highly fragmented. New forces like Bersama have joined the fray, and a wave of fresh, younger faces has been thrust into the ring. To some extent, thousands of first-time voters—especially in urban areas—will now have far more options to choose from in these intense multi-cornered fights.
It is also worth noting that PAS has never managed to make any significant electoral inroads in Johor despite decades of trying—with its religious conservative approach failing to gain much traction.
This may have something to do with the fact that Johoreans, by nature, are pragmatic, savvy, and progressive-minded people. Is it any surprise then that the state has always been among the most modern and wealthiest in the country? The people's choice of government too has somewhat reflected the vision of the powerful palace, which is well-known for its fiercely pro-development stance.
Ong Kian Ming's findings may have some academic merit, but Johor is a completely different kettle of fish. In this state, things are far more complex and dynamic. The mindset is very different, and the society is highly multiracial—with non-Malays making up 40% of the population—especially compared to the largely homogeneous East Coast states.
It must also be remembered that in the 2022 state election, BN won big on the back of a low voter turnout—roughly 55%—due to COVID-19 pandemic concerns and “voter fatigue” amid political uncertainties in the country. But what if against the odds, this time, the numbers exceed 60% or even breach 70%?
Ultimately, the real gamechanger could well be Johor UMNO’s controversial acceptance of a too-good-to-be-true “political favor” from ex-bitter rivals PAS. While on paper it looks like a logical windfall where the nationalist party appears to have nothing to lose, did it prematurely back the wrong horse in its obsession for a total monopoly of power?
Main information source: Malaysiakini and Malay Mail.
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