Since Muhyiddin has resigned, a number of names are being touted as his replacement.
The Kedah Menteri Besar and PAS election director Sanusi Nor, has already been mentioned as a possible successor. Sanusi has even acquired the approval of the PAS Ulama Council—a meaningful endorsement—to be the next leader of the opposition coalition.
Takiyuddin Hassan, the secretary-general of PAS, might also throw his name into the hat.
Other than PAS, candidates outside of PAS are also likely eyeing the role of commander-in-chief of the opposition. Of these, former Prime Minister Mahathir Muhammad is certainly at the top of the list. Despite being 100 years old, the former prime minister likely believes he is fit as a fiddle to lead the opposition, and possibly make history again—not only as the oldest prime minister the world has ever known, but also as the only politician to return as prime minister for a third time.
Although Mahathir has not directly thrown his name into the hat, the way that Pejuang has come forward to quash the rumor that Mahathir might be the next leader of the opposition suggests otherwise. When no one is considering your name, but you want it to be considered—yet are too proud to openly seek it—you may publicly “quash the rumor” that you have any interest to have your name considered, in the hopes that your name will in fact be considered, without needing you to humble yourself to ask for it to be considered.
This sort of “yell thief so that no one thinks you are the thief” politics—where you say you don’t want something in the hope that everyone will give it to you—is actually, the kind of convoluted politics that Mahathir is known for.
Other than Mahathir, I also think there are two other individuals who may offer themselves or be nominated to lead the opposition: the PAS Terengganu Menteri Besar, Dr Samsuri (“Dr Sam”), and Bersatu’s number two, Hamzah Zainuddin.
Of all these figures, I predict that the one who will eventually become the new commander-in-chief of the opposition is Hamzah Zainuddin.
Why?
The main reason Muhyiddin was toppled was not because of allegations that he stole money, controversies involving his son-in-law, or his numerous court cases. Rather, it was because he could not win for the opposition. Worse still, he lacked the energy and vigour to fight and create the conditions necessary for victory, and frequently caused the opposition to lose what it had already won.
Because Muhyiddin was removed for his failure to win, whoever replaces him must be someone the opposition believes can lead them to victory.
In my view, the candidate with the best chance of doing so is Hamzah.
Sanusi is probably a fiercer and more energetic fighter than Hamzah. However, Sanusi’s main disadvantage is that his leadership is unlikely to attract new supporters to the opposition and may even alienate existing ones. Fierce and energetic leadership alone is not enough to win. The energy must be capable of broadening support.
If leadership merely energises a small base without expanding appeal, it risks radicalising supporters, creating turmoil for both the opposition and the country, without improving electoral prospects.
Dr Sam has the potential to attract new supporters, but his weakness lies in his inability to rouse the opposition into a determined, fierce, or energetic fight. His prospects would likely improve only if the opposition were transitioning into government. At this stage however, where the opposition doesn't look like it is anywhere close to becoming the ruling goverment, his restrained style places him at a disadvantage compared to Hamzah.
Hamzah may not fight as fiercely as Sanusi, but he can fight—and his capacity to do so is clearly stronger than that of Muhyiddin or Dr Sam.
Takiyuddin offers a similar temperament to Hamzah, but his main disadvantage is that he is from PAS. Malaysian politics has shifted off-center, which explains why off-center parties like DAP and PAS are now the largest parties in their respective coalitions. However, if these off-center parties not only dominate but also lead their coalitions, the political balance may tilt too far off-center, and risk turmoil and instability.
If Takiyuddin, Sanusi, or Dr Sam were to become the head of the opposition, Malaysia would also risk drifting toward an “Iran-style” leadership, where clerics wield real power even if political figures appear to lead nominally.
I do not believe Malaysians—even Malays, what more non-Malays—are anywhere near ready for such a model.
If Dr Mahathir were 30 or 40 years younger, Hamzah would stand no chance against him. But Mahathir is over 100 years old and has lost much of the prestige, gravitas, and dignitas he once accumulated, largely through his prolonged conflicts with UMNO, Najib, Pak Lah, and the political structures he himself once built.
Mahathir is not only old; he also carries immense baggage. After enduring the mistakes and excesses of the Mahathir era, it is doubtful Malaysians would want a repeat. Malaysians of all persuasion are not in the mood of wanting to return to a fondly remembered past. Rather, we are all in the mood trying of wanting to distance ourselves from a past that we recall with considerable regret.
Moreover, Mahathir is not part of the opposition, nor is he an MP or ADUN. For the opposition to elevate him would be tantamount to admitting that it is so bereft of talent and capability that a 100-year-old outsider is preferable to any of its own leaders.
Considering all this, I believe Hamzah is the candidate the opposition will ultimately settle on. He holds a high party position, is not too old, and comes from Bersatu rather than PAS. His leadership would at least reassure Malaysians that an “Iran-style” Malaysia would not emerge should the opposition take power. He can fight—and fight credibly.
Can Hamzah and PN Defeat Anwar and PH?
Even if Hamzah takes over, I still feel that it is Anwar and Pakatan Harapan that has an advanatage over the opposition.
However, given the fluid and restless nature of Malaysian politics, I don't think that the advantage that Anwar and PH have would be so unsurpassable, that it would be impossible for Hamzah and PN to wrest Putrajaya from Anwar and PH.
Rather, if Anwar’s government loses focus or stumbles, if external pressures mount, and if Hamzah and PN manage to regroup and strike at the right moment and in the right places, I think a Hamzah led Perikatan could have a realistic chance of bringing Anwar and PH down.
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