In a previous post, I wrote that Anwar’s administration has always been sitting on a chair with three legs.
It has always been sitting on three legs because, although on paper Anwar has more than a two-thirds majority in Parliament, in reality only PH’s 80 seats — or around 36 percent of Parliament — are truly behind him.
To cross the 50 percent mark and obtain a simple majority in Parliament, Anwar depends on the support of BN and the parties from Sabah and Sarawak.
It might not be easy to sit on a chair with only three legs, but with enough skill and balance, it is still possible.
For the past three and a half years, Anwar has done remarkably well balancing himself on that three-legged chair. But recently, his luck seems to have started running out, because even his three remaining legs are getting quite wobbly.
Why have they gotten wobbly?
Well, for a variety of reasons, almost all the parties Anwar depends on to cross the 50 percent mark — whether BN or the parties from Sabah and Sarawak — have become increasingly unhappy with his administration.
BN has already started to show its unhappiness by withdrawing its support from the Negeri Sembilan state government while Sabah and Sarawak are increasingly becoming unhappy with Anwar over money and oil and gas issues. Sabah is already showing growing impatience with the Federal government's delay in returning its 40 percent revenue, that a court has ordered the Federal government to do last year while Sarawak has grown so impatient at Anwar's administration unwillingness to give back its oil and gas rights, that it has taken the federal government to court over the federal petroleum laws.
Not only are the legs to Anwar's government made wobbly from the outside, Anwar's own party and coalition — PKR or PH — are also causing Anwar's legs to wobble.
On the PKR side, Rafizi and the 10 MPs aligned with him could potentially pull the carpet from under Anwar’s feet.
In fact, tomorrow Rafizi is expected to make an “extraordinary” announcement regarding his political direction. We don't know what the announcement is going to be , but all signs are pointing to it being an announcement that is not going to be good news to Anwar's reign.
Other than PKR, DAP could also destabilise Anwar’s government if it decides to withdraw from the administration following its internal referendum in July.
Although DAP has said it would continue supporting Anwar in Parliament even if it withdraws from serving in the government, such a reluctant support would leave Anwar so politically crippled , that he would become like the Malay saying, “hidup segan mati tak mahu.” Rather than continue surviving in such an impotent and humiliating state, it might simply be better for Anwar to dissolve Parliament and call for fresh elections.
But despite the problems coming from multiple directions, I would say that the only real and present danger to Anwar’s reign is Rafizi.
Why?
Well, it is because Rafizi is the only one who seems to actually be prepared to kick the wobbly leg of the chair that Anwar's reign is resting on, and cause the entire structure to collapse.
BN, DAP, and the Sabah and Sarawak parties could also do it — and they are probably even more capable of doing it than Rafizi - but they are not likely to do it.
Even if they are immensely frustrated with his reign and even if they know that there is nothing he can do against them if they choose to bring him down, they will still not do it.
Why?
I could probably write an entire thesis to explain why, but if I had to summarise it in one sentence, I would say it is because they are conditioned not to do it.
There is something about the "Malaysian Conditioning" that causes us to place excessive awe and deference on those above them.
That is why once we accept somebody to be above us, it is so difficult for us to remove them, even if we are deeply frustrated with them and even if we don't think that they can do anything to us after we pull them down.
That is why, no matter how unhappy DAP or the Sabah and Sarawak parties become with Anwar, they still will not dare to move openly against him.
Despite their frustrations, they remain psychologically restrained by a certain awe and reverence toward him.
I do not think awe is the only reason — or even the main reason — why BN's Zahid Hamidi would hesitate to move against Anwar, but I do think even Zahid carries a substantial amount of awe and reverence towards Anwar.
Rafizi, however, appears different.
Rafizi does not seem to be in awe of Anwar.
And because of that, if Anwar's reign is fated to collapse before its reign, it will likely be Rafizi that is the one that will kick his wobbly legs, and make him bite the dust.
It is only after somebody like Rafizi makes the first move that the rest - meaning BN, DAP, and the Sabah and Sarawak parties - will come forward to also kick the old lion, once they are sure it is dead.
That is why Rafizi is the most dangerous figure to Anwar’s reign today.
He is dangerous because he is to Anwar's reign what the proverbial snowball is to an avalanche.
Come Sunday, once Rafizi makes his “extraordinary” announcement, a snowball might start rolling — and before you know it , it might trigger an avalanche that will bury Anwar's entire administration in the not too distant, and possibly very near, future.
Note : On Sunday (17 May) , Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi have announced that they will be taking over Parti Bersama Malaysia, to complete their estrangment for PKR. The founder and president of Parti Bersama Malaysia, a Tan Gin Theam, had handed over the Parti Bersama Malaysia's registration certificate to Rafizi and Nik Nazmi at the PJ Performing Arts Centre to herald the entry of a new party, and possibly coalition, if Parti Bersama Malaysia allies with MUDA, as previously speculated, into our political landscape.
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