Rafizi is my number 3 on the list of persons most likely to be Prime Minister of Malaysia in the next 5–10 years. He is my distant number 3 — I give Nurul Izzah the number 1 position, with Khairy Jamaluddin trailing close at number 2. But Rafizi, I see as a long shot, because I simply don’t yet see a pathway for him to reach the top.
I think Nurul Izzah has the clearest pathway. She is the number 2 in the ruling party and the daughter of Anwar, who is now the undisputed leader of Malaysia. Whatever shortcomings Anwar has, whatever mistakes he has made, and however much he suffers from misfortune every now and then, I still believe that after Mahathir, he is the only person who has the charisma, vibe and aura to lead this country. Just like Mahathir ruled Malaysia until he himself decided to step down, I think Anwar will also rule the country for as long as he wills — or as long as fate allows. I don’t see anybody — be it Muhyiddin, Hamzah, Mahathir, Hadi or anyone else — who can topple Anwar, because if Anwar is toppled, the one who replaces him will pale too much in comparison.
Given that Nurul Izzah is Anwar’s heir, and also the fact that she has “made her bones” during the Reformasi era and is next in line within the ruling party, I believe she has the clearest route to the top.
After Nurul, I think Khairy has the second clearest route — with the important caveat that he must return to UMNO.
I believe that in the next 5–10 years, DAP, UMNO and PKR will consolidate into the new political triumvirate of Malaysia, replacing the old UMNO–MIC–MCA structure that ruled from independence until 2018. I think they must consolidate, because unless they do, political stability will not return to the country. Just as it was only the UMNO–MCA–MIC triumvirate that could hold the country together previously, I think Malaysia will only regain stability once a new PKR–UMNO–DAP triumvirate — which I am tentatively calling Harapan Nasional — is formed.
If this triumvirate does form, and if Khairy manages to return to UMNO and replace Zahid Hamidi, then he stands a strong chance of becoming leader of Harapan Nasional, and by extension, the Prime Minister of Malaysia.
By default, leadership of the PKR–UMNO–DAP triumvirate in the post-Anwar era should fall to Nurul Izzah. But if the triumvirate has to choose between Khairy and Nurul Izzah as their chief, I can certainly imagine a scenario where they choose Khairy over her.
So where does that leave Rafizi Ramli then?
Although I can’t neatly place him anywhere in this picture, I feel he will still be part of it, simply because I do not see him disappearing from national politics. But I also don’t see him becoming a minister or deputy prime minister in the post-Anwar era either, because there is something about Rafizi that makes me feel that he is entirely unsuited for a supporting or deputy role.
Because he can't be placed in a supporting or assisting role, the only roles that he can be placed in is as either Leader of the Opposition or the Prime Minister.
Yet I don’t see the pathway for him to become either one. And because I absolutely cannot see how he rises to those positions — even though I feel he will still be relevant in the future — I place him as a distant number 3 on the list of those most likely to be PM after Anwar.
Recently, Tajuddin Rasdi suggested that Rafizi should leave PKR and form a new party. While I do think Rafizi will eventually have to leave PKR and build his own platform, I didn't think he should leave in the near future — because I couldn’t see what kind of party he could create.
He definitely cannot form a Malay or Islamic party — there are already too many of those already, and his personality is not suitable for that space.
If he starts a multiracial party like PKR or DAP, he won’t flourish either, because he has nothing distinct to offer against them.
Ideologically, he could attempt to start something like a socialist party — his new business ventures have a faint whiff of socialism afterall — but judging by how PSM has fared, I imagine that that would probably be the quickest path to political oblivion.
Besides, Rafizi is too intellectual to represent the workers effectively. Nothing in the way he speaks, thinks or presents himself connects naturally with the working class.
However, the recent Sabah election—where all Putrajaya-based parties were wiped out—presents an unique opportunity for Rafizi to start a party that, I believe, will allow him to carve out a niche capable of attracting a solid following and creating a pathway for him to become either the Leader of the Opposition or perhaps even the Prime Minister of the country.
In the Sabah election, we have seen the Sabah First ideology take center stage.
In the upcoming Sarawak election, I reckon that the Sarawak First ideology will likely take center stage too, and demolish the Putrajaya based parties in the Sarawak either either in equal or exceeding manner as to how the Sabah First ideology was able to pulverize the Putrajaya based parties in Sabah.
Given how powerful and significant the Sabah First and Sarawak First ideologies have become, I believe that if Rafizi forms a Malaysia First party that champions a Malaysia First ideology, he might finally carve out a new political space.
What would a Malaysia First party stand for?
While I don’t know exactly — what I do know that it is not going to be similar to the Malaysia for Malaysians ideology as championed by DAP and PAP previously.
Instead, it will likely be more similar to the Sabah First and Sarawak First ideology, except that rather than be limited to Sabah and Sarawak, it will encompass the entirety of Malaysia.
Such an ideology might even attract early traction in Sabah and Sarawak, because it could act as a counterforce to the hyper-local nationalism that has emerged in both these States. At the moment, Sabah First and Sarawak First have no ideological competitor. A Malaysia First narrative could be the first meaningful pushback — not by denying regional rights, but by articulating a unifying national identity that will encompass and broaden the Sarawak First and Sabah First ideology to a national level.
The federation is clearly unravelling. Those who still feel attached to being Malaysian will likely be receptive to a Malaysia First project that counters the centrifugal forces tearing the country apart.
And Rafizi, I feel , is strangely well-suited to champion a Malaysia First ideology. There is something vague and unpinpointable about Rafizi's political identity — he behaves like opposition even when he’s in government, and he behaves like government even when he isn’t. This vagueness, which is a weakness everywhere else, I feel, will become a strength to him , if he champions a Malaysia First ideology.
I genuinely hope Rafizi reads this.
If nothing else, I am sure iT will be a food for thought.
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