According to a recent internal PKR analysis, PKR heavyweight and Human Resources Minister R. Ramanan is set to lose in Sungai Buloh in the coming General Election.
In the PKR analysis, 66 parliamentary seats were separated into four categories, with only seven listed as Tier 1 or safe seats. Thirteen were classified as Tier 2A, 17 as Tier 2B (marginal), and 29 seats were placed in Tier 3, described as vulnerable or requiring significant recovery efforts.
Ramanan's Sungai Buloh was placed in Tier 3, indicating that retaining Sungai Buloh is going to be an uphill task for him.
I knew that Ramanan was likely to lose Sungai Buloh even before PKR came out with its internal analysis, when I heard that the only request Khairy Jamaluddin made to Umno after recently rejoining the party was for his old membership number in Sungai Buloh Umno to be restored to him.
If Khairy re-contests the Sungai Buloh seat, I am quite certain that he will defeat R. Ramanan comfortably this time around.
In the last general election, Khairy only lost by a narrow margin to Ramanan.
This despite the fact that Khairy was only sent to Sungai Buloh at the last minute from Rembau, likely to die politically, as a result of his souring ties with Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. Despite having only weeks to campaign in the PH stronghold, Khairy only narrowly missed defeating Ramanan.
Khairy obtained 48,250 votes to Ramanan's 50,943. That is a narrow majority of just 2,693 votes, or less than 2 percent, in a constituency with 158,090 voters.
Also, the PKR internal analysis, mind you, was made before Rafizi Ramli, the former PKR deputy president and a person that Ramanan has frequently crossed swords with, is projected to start a new party in June.
If not only Khairy, but also Rafizi's new party, were to contest in Sungai Buloh in the next election, I am not even sure that Ramanan would be able to secure third place. After all, in the 2022 elections, the PN candidate Mohd Ghazali Md Hamin was able to secure a respectable 29,060 votes.
Despite his depressing prospects, Ramanan, at least on the face of it, is seemingly retaining his pluck and daring.
Check out what Ramanan has to say about the prospect of him facing a crushing defeat in rh next election.
"Everyone has their own views. But to me, whether this seat is orange, blue, yellow, or red, I don't care. I am service-oriented.
"Some previous analyses even claimed we wouldn't win the government. I can't comment much on this recent analysis because it certainly wasn't based on the views of all 180,000 residents in Sungai Buloh.
"Perhaps they only surveyed 100 or 200 people, and just made blind guesses (main tembak) for the rest. So, I don't take it seriously. I will just do the best I can and work as hard as possible," he said.
"Even here today, you can see 2,000 voters present. When we distributed free crash helmets, over 1,000 people came. Our public schooling aid reached over 4,000 people.
"Our programmes truly touch the grassroots. Let the people decide what 'colour' this seat should be. But of course, I like the colour red, because I am from Pakatan Harapan," he quipped bravely, doing his best to make a lemonade out of a lemon of an internal report.
I don't know how many crash helmets and schooling aid packages Ramanan gave out to be so cheerful about his prospects winning, but whatever the number is, I am more than sure that he did not give out enough in a constituency with a population of 347,092 to make a dent.
There are many reasons working against Ramanan today.
The first is his rapid rise in PKR. Ramanan only joined PKR in 2020 but he was already given a safe seat to contest in the 2022 election. In just a couple of years, he has also made it as a vice president in PKR and a full minister. That he has been promoted so quickly, despite his short tenure and lack of visible accomplishments, has definitely not not given him a very good impression, not only within PKR, but also in the minds of voters in general.
That Rafizi Ramli is gaining in stature and popularity, while Ramanan is seen as one of Rafizi's key nemesis in PKR, is not doing him any favours either.
But the biggest problem Ramanan faces is likely the deep unpopularity of Anwar Ibrahim and PH in the minds of voters today. In 2022, I couldn't throw a stone without hitting at least on or two supporters or fans of Anwar and PH. Today, I can travel far and go for months without seeing even one person who has anything good to say about Anwar and PH.
In the minds of those who voted for Anwar and PH in 2022, Anwar is, at best, a disappointment and, at worst, someone who betrayed their trust.
Ramanan, rightly or wrongly, is seen as a Rasputin-like figure whose negative influence led Anwar astray.
That being the case, Ramanan is not only unpopular because Anwar and PH are unpopular, but he is also suffering from the added unpopularity of being seen as both the symptom and cause of Anwar and PH's decline.
As an Indian, I can certainly appreciate Ramanan's punch dialogue about red being his favorite color or about how he doesn't care about statistics, because he believes in himself.
As a popular Tamil saying goes, I understand that even if a man were to tumble, it is important that he should make sure that his moustache doesn't touch the dirt.
But putting the bravado aside, I will also say that I am 100 percent sure that if Ramanan contests in Sungai Buloh in the next election, he will certainly bite the dust. I am so sure, that if he wins, I will definitely spend 1000 bucks to buy a lottery ticket using the number of votes he gained, because it is definitely a very very very very lucky number.
In the PKR internal analysis, even Anwar's own Tambun seat is reportedly categorised as a red zone seat that Anwar himself might not be able to retain in the next election.
Accordingly, Anwar is supposedly already looking for another constituency to contest in.
If Anwar himself is looking for another constituency, then Ramanan, who is definitely and unquestionably more unpopular than Anwar, would do well to look for another constituency at the earliest possible time.
I think Jelutong is a seat that Ramanan can win.
I am sure that even if PH fields a corpse in Jelutong , it would still be able to win. That being the case, if Ramanan is able to persuade R. S. N. Rayer to give way, perhaps Ramanan might still remain an MP after the next election.
Otherwise, if he insist on being confident because red is his favourite colour, then all I can say is that the proverbs are indeed right : pride does come before the fall.
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