The war against Iran by the United States and Israel is beginning to shake the foundations of the global energy market. As the conflict drags on, the disruption of oil flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz is triggering fears of one of the largest oil supply shocks in modern history.
According to the International Energy Agency, the conflict has already disrupted around 7.5% of global oil supply, with millions of barrels of crude unable to reach the global market. Under normal conditions, roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the most important energy arteries in the world economy.
For Southeast Asia, the consequences could be severe. Nearly 700 million people across ASEAN countries depend heavily on oil imported from the Middle East, both for transportation and for powering industrial production. If the conflict continues and supply disruptions worsen, the entire region could face a sustained period of high energy prices, inflation and economic uncertainty.
In anticipation of this possibility, several ASEAN countries are already taking precautionary measures aimed at reducing fuel consumption and preparing their economies for prolonged volatility in oil markets.
In the Philippines, the government has begun shifting many public sector offices to a four-day work week while also urging officials to limit travel to essential functions. In Thailand, government employees have been encouraged to work from home whenever possible to reduce daily commuting.
Similarly, Vietnam is promoting remote working arrangements, while also encouraging workers who must travel to car pool, use public transport, or cycle as a way of conserving fuel.
Even Indonesia — which also maintains significant fuel subsidies — is actively reviewing its policies as it prepares for the economic pressures that may accompany sustained high oil prices.
Malaysia, however, appears to be approaching the situation from a different angle.
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim recently announced that the government will maintain the price of RON95 petrol at RM1.99 per litre under the BUDI95 subsidy programme. The government has also assured Malaysians that the country currently has around 60 days of fuel reserves, and that supply is expected to remain sufficient at least until May.
While this policy undoubtedly provides immediate relief to Malaysian consumers, it raises an important strategic question.
Is Malaysia doing enough to prepare for a prolonged global fuel crisis?
Fuel subsidies can cushion the immediate shock of rising oil prices, but they do not fundamentally reduce consumption. In fact, subsidies can sometimes have the opposite effect by encouraging continued reliance on petrol-driven transportation.
Other countries appear to be thinking more structurally about the problem. Rather than relying solely on subsidies, they are exploring ways to reduce the overall demand for fuel across their economies.
One of the most practical methods for achieving this is by reducing the need for daily commuting.
Two policies that can contribute to this goal are remote working and a four-day work week.
If employees work from home several days a week, the number of cars on the road falls dramatically. Likewise, if the working week is shortened to four days, millions of commuters would no longer need to travel to work one additional day every week.
In a country like Malaysia, where major urban centres such as Kuala Lumpur experience heavy daily traffic congestion, the impact could be significant. Even a 20% reduction in commuting days nationwide could lead to substantial reductions in national fuel consumption.
This would not only help conserve fuel reserves during times of crisis but could also reduce pollution, traffic congestion and transportation costs for ordinary Malaysians.
Importantly, the idea of remote working and reduced commuting is not unprecedented in Malaysia.
During the global pandemic caused by COVID-19, large parts of the Malaysian economy successfully transitioned to work-from-home arrangements. Government agencies, private companies and even educational institutions were forced to adapt to remote operations during the lockdown periods.
At the time, many employers were initially sceptical about the productivity of remote work. Yet over time, it became clear that many sectors — particularly administrative, professional and knowledge-based industries — could function effectively without requiring employees to be physically present in the office every day.
Indeed, the COVID-19 lockdowns effectively served as a national experiment in remote working, demonstrating that Malaysia already possesses the technological infrastructure and institutional experience necessary to implement such policies again if circumstances require.
A four-day work week would similarly not be an entirely radical concept. Various countries and companies around the world have experimented with the model in recent years, often reporting higher productivity, improved employee well-being and reduced operational costs.
Of course, these policies cannot be applied uniformly across every sector of the economy. Industries such as manufacturing, logistics, retail and healthcare require physical presence and continuous operations.
However, for large segments of the public sector, corporate administration, financial services, education, and technology industries, flexible work arrangements are entirely feasible.
If even a portion of Malaysia’s workforce were able to adopt a hybrid system — combining remote working with a shortened work week — the reduction in fuel consumption could be considerable.
More importantly, such policies would signal a shift toward structural resilience in the face of global shocks.
The deeper issue confronting Malaysia today is not simply the immediate price of petrol.
It is the broader question of how a modern economy adapts to global crises that disrupt essential resources.
The current conflict in the Middle East has already demonstrated how vulnerable the global economy remains to disruptions in oil supply. If tensions escalate further, or if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a prolonged period, oil prices could rise far beyond current levels.
Some analysts are already warning that crude oil could surge dramatically if the situation deteriorates further.
In such a scenario, relying solely on subsidies may eventually become fiscally unsustainable.
Malaysia may therefore need to consider a wider range of strategies — not only to protect consumers from rising fuel prices, but also to reduce the nation’s structural dependence on fuel-intensive lifestyles.
Remote working, flexible work arrangements and even a four-day work week are not silver bullets. But they represent practical tools that could help Malaysia navigate an increasingly uncertain global energy landscape.
The experience of the COVID-19 lockdowns has already shown that these policies are possible.
The question now is whether Malaysia is willing to proactively adopt such ideas before a crisis forces the country to do so.
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