The results on August 12 clearly show that the Malays, the majority race in Malaysia, are not behind Anwar Ibrahim.
Anwar Ibrahim, in other words, is ruling Malaysia with only the support of the minority races. The support of the Malays has clearly and without a doubt gone to the opposition.
Anwar has failed twice, once in the general election that occurred last November and again in the state elections last week, to secure the mandate of the Malays.
That the Malays have with strength, twice rejected Anwar and his rule is an ominous sign.
There is a saying: “What happens once will never happen again, but what happens twice will surely happen the third time.”
Add that with the Islamic concept of triple talak, which indicates that the third repudiation is the final repudiation that must inevitably lead to a divorce, that the Malays have twice pronounced talak on Anwar’s reign, is an indication that Anwar is just one talak shy of being fully divorced by the Malays.
To avoid the third talak from the Malays, Anwar has some difficult choices to make.
To secure his rule, Anwar can either preemptively strike against the leaders of Perikatan Nasional or tame DAP. Both choices are fraught with danger and difficulties.
The Malays are clearly unable to accept a ruling coalition that has DAP as its strongest component. To placate the Malays, Anwar might need to split DAP.
That the Indians have shied away from voting for the DAP government in Penang in the elections offers Anwar a way to divide DAP. The Indians are likely not happy with DAP. If a faction in DAP, perhaps powered by Indians, leaves DAP to start their own splinter party, and if Anwar is able to have both the DAP faction to remain in his aegis, he might be able to keep the strength that DAP gives his coalition, while placating the Malays, by showing them that a singular DAP is no longer influential in his reign.
To prevent a coup, he could also preemptively strike against the main leaders of the Perikatan coalition. Without leaders, Perikatan might not be able to effectively organise a move to topple Anwar.
Splitting DAP is a difficult move. If Anwar is seen as being behind it, it will cause him to lose the support of the Chinese, who are currently his biggest backers. If DAP is to be split, it must be split in a way that indicates that Anwar is uninvolved in it. The split in DAP, in other words, must be seen to have occurred due to differences within DAP itself, and not be seen as something that is engineered by Anwar.
Striking pre-emptively against the main leaders of Perikatan is also fraught with danger. The Malays have clearly shown that their mandate lies with Perikatan. Regardless of the excuse that Anwar concocts to strike against the Perikatan leaders, the preemptive action he takes against Perikatan leaders will almost certainly be seen as a slap in the face by the Malays.
A third option, where Perikatan Nasional is also included in the unity government is easier said than done. At the level of strength that Perikatan is at, Anwar will be forced to split his administration at least by half in order to accommodate Perikatan within the fold of the unity government. Muhyiddin currently has as strong a mandate to lead the country as Anwar. Even if Muhyiddin accepts the role of a deputy prime minister, which he likely won’t because he has already served as the Prime Minister, the deputy prime minister post that has to be created for him will have to be as powerful as the prime minister post itself. In short, to accommodate PN into the unity government, Anwar will not only have to castrate his own side, he will be reigning over a divided house.
Some people are of the opinion that Anwar must not be tempted to win the Malays via stratagems or by pandering to the whims of the Malays, but instead seek to win the approval of the Malays by improving the state of economy , but this suggestion is like putting the horse before the cart. To improve the economy, Anwar needs to attract investors to invest in Malaysia, but which serious investor will come and invest in Malaysia, when there is a real risk that the government in Malaysia will be prematurely brought down for the fourth time in a row? To attract investors, Anwar has to prove that there is socio-political stability in the country, which he can only achieve if he is able to win over the Malays. To try to win the Malays by improving the economy, when winning the Malays itself is crucial to improving the economy, will just cause everything to go around in circles.
The last option that Anwar can exercise to rule for a full term is to apply the authoritarian rule.
Perikatan has received a strong mandate from the Malay. With such a strong mandate, it is bound to agitate against the unity government. We don’t yet know how Perikatan will agitate, but going by precedence, I feel that it will probably attempt to agitate by enforcing strict or controversial Islamic laws in the state that it controls or organise large-scale demonstrations against any effort by the unity government to pursue the multiracial concept it purports.
When Perikatan moves in that direction, the turmoil that ensues might give Anwar the justification to pursue a more authoritarian rule. With authoritarian powers, Anwar might have the strength to stabilize the country, placate the Malays and improve the economy.
The downside of this move, however, is that it will veer the country away from its founding character as a free and democratic nation, and turn it more into one that is autocratically dictated.
“Heavy is the head that wears the crown.”
Regardless of which option or combination of options Anwar chooses, what is certain is that the way ahead is difficult and fraught with danger.
The chances are quite high that Anwar himself might suffer as his predecessors, and see his reign cut short within 2 years, or the federation might find itself in a position where it might not be able to function according to its natural custom, inclinations, structures, forms or philosophy.
Up ahead there is a storm, while the ship called Malaysia is beset with problems.
The outlook is not good.
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