Some analysts, such as Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, have dismissed PAS's chances of making significant gains in Johor.
“I don’t see any real competition in Johor. It will be more like BN against PH, as PAS and Bersatu have been weakened by their division,” Mazlan told FMT.
Unlike Mazlan, however, I predict that PAS will emerge as the biggest winner of the Johor election.
The reasons cited by Mazlan — internal divisions within PN and the fact that PAS and Bersatu are supported only by smaller parties such as Berjasa, Pejuang, Putra and MUDA — are, in my view, insignificant factors.
To me, the two most important determinants of electoral success are identity and the perception of winning.
When voters stand before the ballot box, they generally vote for the party they identify with — or the party in which they see themselves reflected. But identity alone is not enough. People also want to feel that they are backing a winner.
Historically, PAS has always been a highly identity-driven party. It is the party many Malays and Muslims gravitate towards whenever they feel their Malay or Islamic identity is under threat.
Yet PAS traditionally suffered from one major weakness: it did not make its supporters feel like winners.
Many Malay-Muslim voters saw PAS as the party most committed to defending Islam and Malay interests, but supporting PAS did not confer them a sense of prestige, success or superiority. PAS was often perceived as a party of struggle rather than a party of victory.
Part of the reason was that PAS itself rarely behaved like a party that expected to lead. It was more comfortable being the principled partner than the dominant force. It is more comfortable playing the role of the right hand man than the boss. That it carried the image of a party led by elderly clerics, rooted largely in rural politics, largely reinforced that perception.
Today, however, PAS has acquired something it lacked before: a winner's shine.
PAS is openly competing with Bersatu for leadership within PN, and it appears to be winning that contest. Even component parties that were previously uncomfortable with PAS leading the coalition, such as Chinese based Gerakan and Indian based MIPP, now seem prepared to accept PAS as the dominant force within PN.
There is also less internal conflict within PN than many observers assume.
The real struggle is not between PAS and the rest of PN. Rather, it is between a rising PAS and a falling Bersatu's reluctance to accept that rise. The dispute is increasingly technical rather than existential.
The fact that figures such as Hamzah Zainudin are now working within a PAS-dominated political environment, while Gerakan and MIPP remain aligned with PAS, suggests that PAS is firmly in control of the coalition's direction.
The most immediate consequence of PN's internal dispute is that PAS and Bersatu may not be able to contest under the PN banner in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.
But I do not believe that this will significantly hurt PAS.
Voters generally know where the centre of gravity within PN now lies. They can see which party is ascendant and which is on its way out. If PN supporters are forced to choose between PAS and Bersatu, they will undoubtedly gravitate towards PAS.
At the same time, PAS is retaining its traditional appeal as the party most trusted to defend Islam and Malay interests while adding a new attraction: the image of a emerging winner.
Previously, PAS's support base consisted mainly of highly identity-conscious Malay-Muslim voters. Today, it has an opportunity to appeal to a broader segment of the Malay-Muslim electorate who are attracted not only by identity politics but also by PAS's perceived potential to emerge as the apex winner.
Led by Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar and Hamzah Zainudin today, the PAS-led PN arguably projects an equal , if not stronger, winning image than the Anwar Ibrahim-Zahid Hamidi partnership that anchors PH-BN.
We should also remember that one of the major reasons BN performed strongly in Johor previously was the influence of Najib Razak. Considering that Najib is languishing in jail today, that factor no longer exists.
In fact, rather that PN, it is actually PH-BN that appears increasingly burdened by internal contradictions.
The divisions within PN has passed its peak - it is now approaching its conclusion. The remaining obstacle is largely a technical matter of Bersatu's reluctance to accept its defeated status and delusional resistance to PAS's growing dominance.
The division within PH-BN on the other hand, is now approaching its peak. Disagreements between PH and BN leaders have erupted at both the national and state levels, and judging by the escalation in their rhetorics, we can predict that the worst in the division in PH-BN is yet to come, not behind it.
Finally, it is important to understand that PAS's definition of victory is very different from that of PH or BN.
PAS currently holds only one seat in Johor, or three if one counts all PN-held seats.
For PAS to emerge as one of the election's biggest winners, it merely needs to win 4 seats.
BN, meanwhile, holds around 40 seats, while PH holds 12. To claim victory, BN would need to exceed its current tally while PH would need to at least retain its existing strength.
I find both of those objectives to be far more difficult than PAS increasing its seat count.
I still expect PH-BN to retain control of Johor, albeit with a reduced majority.
As for the PAS-led PN, I would not be surprised if it doubled or tripled its representation in the state assembly.
I would not even be surprised if it quadrupled it.
Whether PAS wins Johor is one question.
Whether PAS emerges as the biggest winner of the Johor election is another entirely.
And on that question, I believe PAS has a very strong chance. To the least, it has a far better chance than any other of its major competitor, be it PH or BN.
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