Bloodied in Borneo, Bruised in Johor: DAP Will Not Be Knocked Out
The Democratic Action Party's devastating wipeout in the November 2025 Sabah state election—losing all eight seats it contested—sent shockwaves through Malaysian politics. This marked the first time since 2004 that DAP had no representation in the Sabah State Legislative Assembly. The defeat raised an urgent question: could this electoral annihilation be repeated in the 2026 Johor state election?
The short answer is almost certainly no. While DAP faces significant headwinds in Johor, a complete zero-seat outcome appears unlikely based on available evidence. To borrow a maritime metaphor, if Sabah was a perfect storm that capsized DAP's vessel entirely, Johor represents choppy waters with scattered rocks—dangerous, but not a shipwreck.
What Happened in Sabah: A Political Earthquake
Sabah's rejection of DAP was rooted in distinct local dynamics rather than a nationwide anti-DAP wave. The 2025 Sabah election saw a decisive shift toward local Sabahan parties, with Warisan securing 25 seats and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah retaining power. Peninsular-origin parties suffered catastrophic rejection, as voters punished national coalitions for perceived subservience to Putrajaya.
DAP lost six former stronghold seats to Warisan, with its state chief and deputy both defeated. The party's traditional urban Chinese base in Kota Kinabalu constituencies like Likas, Luyang, and Kapayan abandoned DAP for Warisan. Sabahans effectively showed "the door to 'outsider' political parties such as Umno and DAP," viewing them as Malayan parties. The election was not merely a defeat but a political earthquake that reduced DAP's Sabah structure to rubble—a fortress that had taken decades to build crumbled in a single night.
Why Johor Is Fundamentally Different: A Different Political Ecosystem
Several key factors distinguish Johor from Sabah, making a zero-seat outcome about as likely as finding a tropical beach in the Arctic:
**Party Footprint and Incumbency – The Anchors That Hold** – In Johor, DAP currently holds 10 state seats and is contesting 17 constituencies in the coming election. This represents a significant organizational presence with incumbent representatives who have established constituency service records. Unlike Sabah, where DAP was contesting as part of a federal coalition viewed as "outsiders," Johor DAP has deep roots in the state's political landscape. These 10 seats are not mere sandcastles waiting for a wave to wash them away; they are structures with foundations, however imperfect.
**Absence of Sabah's "Local vs. Outsider" Dynamic – A Different Political Weather System** – The anti-Peninsular sentiment that drove Sabah's rejection of national parties does not apply in Johor, a Peninsular state where DAP is not viewed as an external force. The political calculus in Johor revolves around different issues—performance, service delivery, and coalition dynamics rather than regional autonomy. If Sabah's election was a referendum on "Malayan parties," Johor's will be a report card on governance and local service—a test DAP has at least some preparation for.
**Projected BN Landslide Scenario – The Silver Lining in a Dark Cloud** – Even under the most pessimistic projections for Pakatan Harapan, DAP is expected to retain some seats. Former DAP MP Dr. Ong Kian Ming projected BN could win 53 of 56 seats, with PH securing the remaining three. While this represents a poor outcome for DAP, it is not a zero-seat wipeout. Even in a tsunami scenario where BN sweeps nearly everything, DAP would still hold onto a few lifeboats—small islands of survival amidst a rising tide.
**Ground-Level Sentiment – The Pulse on the Street** – Reporting from Johor suggests constituents view DAP incumbents favorably in key areas. One Jementah resident expressed confidence that DAP would retain its seat, stating, "The incumbent is good... I don't think the DAP in Johor will 'eat eight eggs' like it did in Sabah." This sentiment acts as a political firebreak, preventing the flames of anti-incumbency from spreading to every DAP stronghold.
Challenges Remain: Cracks in the Foundation
Despite avoiding a Sabah-style wipeout, DAP faces genuine challenges in Johor—cracks that could widen into crevasses if left unaddressed:
**Incumbent Complacency – The Arrogance of Power** – Critics argue DAP has grown arrogant in Johor, mistaking large majorities in seats like Skudai for permanent support. Complaints about unfulfilled promises, part-time service centers, and failure to address local issues like flooding and traffic congestion have emerged. If DAP treats its seats as hereditary fiefdoms rather than earned trust, voters may treat them as tenants overdue for eviction.
**Anti-Incumbency Sentiment – The Silent Grumbling** – Voter frustration with the Anwar government's pace of reforms could suppress turnout among traditional supporters, potentially costing DAP several closely-fought seats. This is the quiet before the storm—a rumbling discontent that may not manifest in opinion polls but could translate into empty polling stations on election day.
**MCA Resurgence – The Phoenix Rising** – DAP narrowly lost four traditional strongholds—Bekok, Yong Peng, Paloh, and Pekan Nanas—to MCA in 2022 and is seeking to reclaim them. This demonstrates vulnerability. MCA is not merely knocking on doors; it is remodeling houses in neighborhoods DAP once considered its exclusive territory.
Conclusion: Not a Clean Sweep Against DAP
The Sabah state election represented a unique convergence of factors—anti-Peninsular sentiment, the rise of local parties, and years of perceived neglect—that do not apply in Johor. Comparing the two is like comparing a typhoon to a monsoon: both bring rain, but only one tears roofs from houses. While DAP may lose seats in Johor due to voter fatigue, complacency concerns, and BN's momentum, a complete wipeout is highly unlikely. The party's incumbency, organizational presence, and absence of Sabah's "outsider" dynamic provide a buffer that Sabah simply lacked.
DAP will likely emerge from Johor bloodied but not broken—bruised but still standing. The party may lose its crown in several constituencies, but it will not be dethroned entirely. In the chessboard of Johor politics, DAP may lose several pieces, but it will not be checkmated. Zero seats in Johor remains a political fantasy, not a forecast—a nightmare that Sabah experienced but Johor is unlikely to replicate.
moykokming@gmail.com
Moy Kok Ming (moykokming@gmail.com) is a content creator under the Newswav Creator programme, where you get to express yourself, be a citizen journalist, and at the same time monetize your content & reach millions of users on Newswav. Log in to creator.newswav.com and become a Newswav Creator now!
The User Content (as defined on Newswav Terms of Use) above including the views expressed and media (pictures, videos, citations etc) were submitted & posted by the author. Newswav is solely an aggregation platform that hosts the User Content. If you have any questions about the content, copyright or other issues of the work, please contact creator@newswav.com.
