The morning of 5 December 2025 brought a shock to Sabah and to all who believed local politics was anchored still by a familiar face. Bung Moktar Radin veteran Sabah leader, six‑term MP for Kinabatangan, and long‑time chair of Barisan Nasional (BN) Sabah died in hospital at the age of 66, just six days after narrowly defending his Lamag state seat. (CNA) That unexpected loss leaves a vacuum. It forces Sabahans and political observers alike to ask: without him, where do the votes go now?
In the volatile aftermath of the 17th state election, this question matters not just for Lamag or Kinabatangan. It matters for the balance of power across Sabah. And it matters for what many have long seen as the future of politics in East Malaysia.
The recent election already revealed cracks
The 2025 Sabah election delivered a stark verdict. Local coalitions dominated. Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) captured 29 seats, Parti Warisan Sabah secured 25. BN once Sabah’s “fixed deposit” of seats barely scraped six. (NST Online)
That result reflected deep voter fatigue with Peninsular-based parties. Many Sabahans opted instead for parties rooted in local identity, issues, and autonomy. (The Vibes)
Winning six out of 45 contested seats marked a steep fall. In 2020 BN won 14 state seats. (The Star)
Analysts call that a critical sign: BN’s influence is shrinking fast. The coalition can no longer rely on past loyalty.
The Man, the Margin, the End
Bung Moktar’s career often sparked controversy. He was outspoken in championing rural infrastructure, known for blunt rhetoric and a “fighter” style that resonated in Sabah’s east. His narrow 153‑vote win in Lamag down from a 661‑vote margin in 2020 already signalled waning dominance. (The Sun Malaysia)
His death creates a legal and political limbo. Until the seat is declared vacant by the electoral authorities, a by‑election may or may not be triggered. Analysts warn that even if BN fields a successor, the personal loyalty once reserved for Bung Moktar may not simply transfer to a new name. (NST Online)
Professor Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid from Universiti Sains Malaysia pointed out that in Lamag, as in many Sabah constituencies, support often ties to personalities rather than party platforms. He said that without a credible local figure, BN’s hold could weaken considerably. (NST Online)
For a man who had once declared this election “our final battle” to restore BN’s dominance in Sabah, his death makes that claim eerily literal. (UMNO)
Sabah’s New Landscape: GRS, Warisan and Independents
Even before Bung’s passing, the 2025 state election had redrawn Sabah’s political map. Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) emerged as dominant coalition, winning 29 of 73 seats and reclaiming control when its chairman Hajiji Noor was sworn in for a second term as Chief Minister.
Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) took 25 seats. BN was reduced to just six. Independents, small regional parties and a handful of other players filled the rest. (Malay Mail)
GRS appears well positioned to remain in power. Hajiji has promised to continue the state’s “Sabah Maju Jaya” development blueprint, now under a renewed mandate. (Malay Mail)
Meanwhile, Warisan has become the largest opposition, aiming to channel frustrations over gerrymandering, uneven development, and unfulfilled promises. Observers note that popular vote totals suggest Warisan may have outpolled GRS, even if seat distribution favoured the latter. (Reddit)
The success of independents and minor-party candidates many of whom ran on local issues rather than national platforms shows that Sabahans want representation rooted in day-to-day reality. (Reddit)
What Bung’s Absence Actually Means
End of a Personal Machine
Bung Moktar was often described as a political machine: direct, centralised, and effective at delivering results. Without him, BN loses not only a seat but its local anchor in Lamag and Kinabatangan. The smooth machinery that delivered votes across decades may fragment.
Opportunity for Realignment
The weak 153‑vote margin and Bung’s death open space for realignment. Voters previously loyal to him might shift to parties perceived as more stable or attentive to local issues, like GRS or Warisan.
Chance for Independents and Local Voices
The 2025 results already showed that independents can win. Without a strong BN figure, local issues may dominate more than party loyalty. That may reshape Sabah politics less around party ideology, more around constituency-level reality.
Test for BN’s Future
If BN fails to defend Lamag in the likely by‑election, it may mark the end of its relevance as a dominant force in Sabah. Success or failure will shape how national parties approach East Malaysian politics going forward.
Who Is Positioned to Benefit
GRS under Hajiji Noor
With momentum, a strong majority, and the ability to deliver development pledges under the Sabah Maju Jaya blueprint, GRS looks like the front‑runner.
Warisan as Main Opposition
With widespread voter fatigue over national party dominance, Warisan could position itself as the voice of “Sabahan first” sentiment.
Independent or Local Candidates
Disillusioned voters seeking pragmatic representation may favour familiar, community-rooted figures over party labels.
BN’s Test Candidate (if any)
If BN fields a candidate with deep local roots perhaps someone close to Bung’s network it has a chance. But that person must overcome the loss of personal charisma and the memory of the late leader.
With Bung gone, BN faces tougher choices
The death of Bung Moktar automatically vacates the Lamag seat. A by-election looms. The outcome could become a bellwether for BN’s future in Sabah. (The Straits Times)
Political analysts argue that the personal loyalty that propped BN up in Lamag may not transfer automatically to a new BN candidate. The narrow 153-vote majority signals a fragile base, not a stronghold. (NST Online)
“One cannot assume that the same people will vote for them again, just because they aligned with Bung,” said Professor Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia. (NST Online)
Without a strong, trusted local candidate, voters may turn toward GRS or even consider independent candidates.
This moment could accelerate the decline of BN in Sabah. The coalition’s older model heavily reliant on personalities and top-down structure may no longer resonate.
Sabah’s new political mood: Local over national
Sabah’s 2025 election results reflect more than just a rejection of old faces. They signify a shift in how Sabahans see representation.
Out of 73 state assembly seats, 60 were won by Sabah-based coalitions. That is 82 percent of the assembly. PN, PH, BN Peninsular-based coalitions took just 8 seats combined. (The Vibes)
Analysts trace this shift to a growing demand for autonomy, infrastructure improvements, and recognition of Sabah’s unique identity. Ethnic and regional dynamics in Sabah are more fluid than in Peninsular Malaysia. (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute)
BN’s push prior to election expanding to contest 45 seats proved too ambitious. Voters appear to reject large national coalitions in favour of locally rooted parties. (Malay Mail)
Even BN’s own top brass seem to recognise the challenge. (The Sun Malaysia)
Can BN reinvent itself?
Without Bung Moktar, BN faces two paths. One leads back to nostalgia and hope of regaining ground. The other demands reinvention.
Some analysts caution that BN might salvage relevance if it nominates credible local candidates with deep community ties. The late leader himself had earlier introduced 80 percent new faces in BN’s slate a sign he understood the need for renewal. (NST Online)
BN could also learn from the trend: support for local coalitions appears deeply rooted now. The party needs to adapt its messaging emphasise local issues, de-emphasise centralised control, and engage communities.
Failure to do so may widen the distance between BN and Sabah voters.
Broader Implications: Sabah’s Evolving Political Identity
Sabah’s politics have long grappled with identity: national vs local, federal vs state interests, development vs autonomy. The 2025 election already signalled a tilt toward local autonomy and regional parties.
With Bung Moktar gone, Sabah might accelerate away from national-party dominance toward a more fragmented, locally driven political order.
GRS’s victory and Warisan’s strong opposition presence show voters increasingly value control over their own affairs. Among many Sabahans, the promise of “Sabah first” resonates more than loyalty to long-established national parties. The success of independents and smaller parties suggests a desire for leaders rooted in community realities rather than party manifestos.
If this trend holds, future elections may look less like national‑party showdowns and more like community‑level contests between visions for Sabah’s future development, rights, autonomy, and real local representation.
What Needs to Happen Now
- Election authorities must act quickly to declare the status of Lamag’s seat and if necessary issue a writ for a by‑election. The sooner the seat is filled, the clearer the balance of power becomes.
- BN must select a candidate with credibility, local roots, and ability to connect beyond party loyalty. If they fail, they risk being reduced to irrelevance.
- Whoever wins must address core Sabah grievances: infrastructure gaps, wells of underdevelopment, resource fairness. Political legitimacy may depend more on delivery than legacy.
- Voters should demand accountability from all parties. With shifting alliances and growing complexity, transparency and genuine community engagement must become the norm.
Sabah just lost one of its storied political figures. People may mourn or remember Bung Moktar as a voice for certain communities. But that loss also opens a window a chance for change not just in who sits in Lamag, but in how Sabah is governed.
That change can be messy. Loyalties may shift. Contest may erupt. But the potential emerges for something more substantial than personality politics. For Sabah to chart its own path, grounded in local needs and dignity.
In the silence left by Bung Moktar, a new Sabah may be rising one where the vote belongs less to a man, and more to the people.
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