EVERY time the world is in crisis, the immediate reaction is fear. It is felt during war, rising oil prices, tighter supply chains, weakening currencies and market instability.
Business leaders, investors and ordinary consumers react similarly: They brace for impact. This is happening again as the war in Iran sends global energy prices shooting through the roof amid anticipated disruptions in oil supply routes.
For Filipinos, that kind of shock hits close to home. We import most of our oil, so when global crude prices jump, the effects are felt quickly and widely. When fuel prices go up, transport costs follow, and power rates come under pressure. Inflation starts to creep back into the conversation, businesses review budgets, households adjust spending, and overall confidence weakens. It is the domino effect of a global crisis.
What is less obvious, but just as real, is that times like this also create openings. History has shown this repeatedly: crisis shakes old habits, exposes weak systems, and forces businesses and consumers to change faster than they otherwise would. It is uncomfortable, sometimes painful, but it also creates the conditions for innovation.
In business, pressure often reveals who is adaptable and who is not.
When oil prices rise, the first instinct is usually defensive, such as to cut costs, delay expansion, review procurement, and hold capital spending. These are sensible moves, especially when uncertainty is high.
Shifting demands
But it should not be the entire playbook. A crisis is not only a threat to manage; it is also a signal that tells us where demand is shifting, where old models are becoming too expensive, and where smarter solutions suddenly become more valuable.
Take logistics. Rising fuel prices can quickly eat into margins, especially among delivery firms, distributors, and transport operators. But this pressure pushes companies to optimize. They review routes more carefully. They reduce idle time. They improve dispatch systems. They invest in software that helps them plan better and waste less.
What begins as a response to higher fuel costs often leads to a better operating model that remains useful even after prices settle down.
The same thing happens in aviation. Airlines are among the first to feel the pain when fuel is more expensive. Yet some of the most important changes in the industry have come after periods of oil volatility. Carriers started investing in more fuel-efficient fleets, lighter materials, smarter maintenance systems, and better flight planning because they had to. The pressure forced discipline. The companies that modernized earlier gained an edge in efficiency that lasted well beyond the crisis itself.
Energy has always worked this way. When oil prices surge, alternatives become more attractive. Solar, wind, battery storage, electric mobility, and energy-saving technologies begin to make sense, not just from an environmental point of view but from a cost and resilience standpoint. What may have seemed optional during calmer times starts to look necessary, when fossil fuel dependence gets more expensive and more risky.
This shift does not happen only at the level of governments and large utilities. It also happens in companies. Businesses start to pay more attention to how much energy they use and where it is being wasted.
Building systems, cooling loads, transport schedules, production processes, and power monitoring all come under review. Digitization often speeds up in these moments because data becomes essential. You cannot manage what you do not measure. When energy is cheap, inefficiency is easier to ignore. When energy is expensive, inefficiency becomes impossible to hide.
Disruption compresses time.
Changes that would normally take years can happen in months when the pressure is strong enough. We saw this during the global financial crisis and the same pattern during the pandemic. The drive to use digital has largely also been triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, especially in the Philippines.
Telemedicine and digital payments gained ground, and small businesses started selling online. Many did not make this shift because they had a grand digital strategy. They did it because survival demanded it. And they discovered a much larger market than before.
As oil prices rise and global tensions unsettle markets, the same principle applies. New costs will create new behavior. Transport operators will look harder at electric or hybrid fleets. Developers will pay more attention to energy-efficient building design. Manufacturers will reassess supply chains and explore more localized production where practical. Agribusiness may benefit from renewed interest in local sourcing, as imported goods become costlier to move. Technology providers that help companies cut waste and run leaner may find stronger demand.
Investors also pay attention to these shifts. Capital tends to move toward businesses that solve the problem of the moment. In every crisis, money looks for answers, particularly to answer the question: What new demand is being created now?
Kay Calpo Lugtu is the chief operating officer of Hungry Workhorse, a digital and culture transformation firm. She may be reached at kay.lugtu@hungryworkhorse.com
