MANILA, Philippines — The race for the 2028 Senate remains highly competitive despite Sen. Robinhood Padilla emerging as the early frontrunner, with several prospective candidates statistically tied for the remaining seats in the preliminary Magic 12, according to the latest Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey released by OCTA Research on Wednesday.
Padilla posted the highest voter preference at 53.9 percent and was the only prospective candidate with a fixed first-place ranking in the survey. Broadcaster Raffy Tulfo followed with 47.4 percent, while Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano received 45.4 percent. Former senator Grace Poe got 44.5 percent, and Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto, 42.0 percent.
OCTA said the close margins among these candidates indicated that their relative rankings could not yet be considered statistically fixed.
Sen. Loren Legarda garnered 39 percent, followed by former senator Manny Pacquiao with 34.5 percent, Davao City Rep. Paolo Duterte with 34.3 percent, and broadcaster Ben Tulfo with 31 percent. Former Makati City mayor Abby Binay received 26.1 percent, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada 25.5 percent, and actor Mark Lapid 25 percent, placing them within or near the preliminary Top 12.
Also included in the survey were Sen. Francis Escudero (23.2 percent), former senator Koko Pimentel (21.2 percent), Sen. Mark Villar (19.5 percent), Education Secretary Sonny Angara (19.2 percent), former presidential spokesman Salvador Panelo (18.4 percent), Sen. JV Ejercito (18.1 percent), former senator Gringo Honasan (16.9 percent), actor Philip Salvador (16.3 percent), former Philippine National Police chief Nicolas Torre III (15.5 percent), television host Willie Revillame (15.1 percent), ACT-CIS Rep. Bonifacio Bosita (14.9 percent), former senator Leila de Lima (13.7 percent), former Interior secretary Benhur Abalos (13.3 percent), former senator Antonio Trillanes IV (12.9 percent), Labor Sec. Francis Tolentino (12.5 percent), Executive Secretary Ralph Recto (12 percent), Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. (11.2 percent), Rep. Chel Diokno (10.6 percent), San Juan Mayor Francis Zamora (9.2 percent), Palace Press Officer Claire Castro (7.2 percent), lawyer Dino de Leon (7 percent), Public Worka Sec. Secretary Vince Dizon (6.9 percent), Baguio City mayor Benjamin Magalong and Cavite Rep. Lani Mercado (6.8 percent each), Quezon City Mayor Joy Belmonte (5.8 percent), former Commission on Audit commissioner Heidi Mendoza (4 percent), economist Cielo Magno (2.9 percent), and political analyst Ronald Llamas (2.8 percent).
OCTA emphasized that the findings should not be interpreted as a forecast of the 2028 elections, noting that the survey was based on a hypothetical list of prospective candidates more than two years before the filing of certificates of candidacy.
It said several personalities requested to be removed from the list, while names receiving one percent or less were excluded from the published results. The polling firm added that voter preferences could still shift substantially as political alignments, candidacies and campaign issues evolve.
The survey was conducted from July 4 to 11 through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 registered voters nationwide. It has a ±3 percentage-point margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level.
