KUALA LUMPUR: Pas’ decision to end political cooperation with Bersatu may have triggered speculation about the future of Perikatan Nasional (PN), but political analysts believe the bigger story lies elsewhere.
Rather than signalling the immediate collapse of opposition-controlled state governments, the move may instead reflect a broader shift in Malaysian politics – one where parties increasingly prioritise maximising their own electoral strength before negotiating alliances after elections.
For years, coalition politics in Malaysia has largely revolved around pre-election agreements. Yet analysts say recent developments suggest parties may now be preparing for a more fluid political landscape ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16), where electoral pacts become more selective and post-election coalition building takes precedence.
Pacific Research Centre principal adviser Dr Oh Ei Sun described the emerging scenario as one in which no political arrangement should be regarded as permanent.
“The idea is for each party to win as many seats as possible and explore coalition government after the next general election,” he told Twentytwo13.
“So, this could include reaching some tacit electoral pact in some constituencies but competing with one another in other constituencies. Nothing is fixed. Everything is fluid.”
His assessment comes after Pas announced on Monday that it had decided to terminate political cooperation with Bersatu while simultaneously exploring new forms of electoral cooperation under the banner of “penyatuan ummah”.
The decision was announced by Pas president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang following a special meeting of the party’s central working committee.
The move immediately raised questions about the future of PN, which was formed in 2020 and has since become the country’s principal opposition coalition.
No immediate threat to Kedah and Perlis
Despite concerns over the stability of Pas-led governments in Kedah and Perlis, analysts generally do not expect immediate disruptions.
Kedah Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor was quick to downplay concerns, stressing that Bersatu representatives would remain in the state administration as long as they continued supporting the government.
“They remain, with no changes as long as they maintain their support for the state government,” Sanusi said yesterday.
He maintained that Pas’ decision did not affect the operation of the Kedah government and that Bersatu executive councillors could continue serving in the administration.
Bersatu currently holds two executive council positions – Kubang Rotan assemblyman Datuk Mohd Salleh Saidin (Tourism, Culture and Entrepreneurship) and Bukit Kayu Hitam assemblywoman Datuk Halimaton Shaadiah Saad (Welfare, Women, Family and Community Affairs).
Earlier, Sanusi retained Suka Menanti assemblyman Dzowahir Ab Ghani (Agriculture, Plantations and Transport) despite his expulsion from Bersatu.
Oh similarly argued that Pas has little incentive to destabilise governments it already controls.
“In theory Pas is unlikely to topple state governments led by itself, so it would still ‘enjoy’ the support of Bersatu for the same if it is forthcoming,” he said.
“Bersatu would perhaps not cease such support as it still wants to be part of state governments.”
Professor Dr Azmi Hassan of the Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research agreed.
“There is no issue in Kedah because Pas assemblymen dominate the state government,” he said.
While acknowledging that Perlis presents a slightly different situation, Azmi noted that the Raja of Perlis had already decreed that the state government should continue.
“If similar arrangements can continue in Perak and Pahang despite tensions involving Pakatan Harapan, DAP and Umno, then there is no reason why the Perlis state government cannot continue as well,” he said.
Professor James Chin of Monash University Malaysia likewise dismissed suggestions that Bersatu would voluntarily leave state administrations.
“The moment you get out of the government, you lose all your patronage,” he told Twentytwo13.
Pas flexing its political muscle
Analysts believe the decision also reflects Pas’ growing confidence in its own political strength.
Today, Pas dominates all four State Government Four (SG4) administrations – Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu and Perlis – and possesses the strongest grassroots machinery among opposition parties.
Political analyst Muhammad Izmer Yusof of Universiti Malaysia Perlis said Bersatu remains heavily dependent on Pas’ electoral machinery.
“Bersatu generally does not possess a strong independent party machinery of its own,” he said in a phone interview.
“Bersatu on its own, without Pas, would struggle to make significant electoral inroads.”
According to Izmer, Pas has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to mobilise support across Malay-majority states.
“The real question now is whether the fragmentation of the Malay vote will benefit Barisan Nasional, Pas or Pakatan Harapan – not Bersatu,” he said.
Chin believes Pas may also be distancing itself from a party facing internal challenges.
“Bersatu is imploding and losing support, so they don’t want to have anything to do with Bersatu,” he said.
“Bersatu doesn’t really add value.”
He suggested Pas leaders may already be looking beyond Bersatu and towards future political arrangements centred on a post-Muhyiddin leadership structure.
What happens to PN now?
The split has exposed widening tensions within PN itself.
While Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin expressed regret over Pas’ decision, he insisted Bersatu would remain committed to PN and continue championing its agenda.
“As a founding party of Perikatan Nasional, Bersatu will remain within PN and continue to strengthen the core principles of its struggle,” Muhyiddin said in a statement today.
However, cracks within the coalition became more visible after Bersatu Information chief Tun Faisal Ismail Aziz publicly questioned the effectiveness of PN chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar.
In a statement, Tun Faisal claimed the ongoing crisis had highlighted weaknesses in the coalition’s leadership structure, arguing that Ahmad Samsuri faced constraints because major decisions ultimately rested with Pas president Abdul Hadi and the party’s Syura Council.
The criticism underscored growing uncertainty about how PN will function following Pas’ decision.
Yet Chin cautioned against rushing to conclusions.
“It is too early to say whether the breakup will benefit PH and BN,” he said.
He argued that much depends on Bersatu’s future leadership direction, particularly amid growing speculation that a new leadership configuration could emerge.
Towards another political realignment?
Perhaps the most significant implication is what the split reveals about the broader trajectory of Malaysian politics.
The development comes just days after analysts suggested the upcoming Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections could signal another phase of political realignment ahead of GE16.
Azmi believes Pas’ long-term future may not necessarily lie with Bersatu.
“Pas still needs Umno,” he said.
“This is what some have referred to as a potential Muafakat Nasional 2.0.”
However, he acknowledged that such cooperation currently appears unlikely in Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka.
Izmer believes political realignments are becoming increasingly common.
“Given that an outright parliamentary majority is now highly unlikely, political cooperation and realignment will remain important features of the political landscape,” he said.
Chin was more sceptical about the prospect of a formal Pas-Umno reunion.
“There is no way Umno is going to line up with Pas for an election pact,” he said.
According to Chin, Umno’s current strategy is to maximise its own seat tally before considering post-election alliances.
That assessment closely mirrors Oh’s argument that Malaysian politics is increasingly moving away from rigid coalition structures towards a more flexible model.
As Johor and Negeri Sembilan prepare for state elections and speculation grows that Melaka could eventually follow suit, Pas’ decision may ultimately be remembered not simply as the end of one political partnership.
Instead, it could mark the beginning of a new phase in Malaysian politics – one in which alliances are increasingly negotiable, electoral cooperation becomes more selective, and the battle for GE16 is fought on far more fluid terrain than ever before.
