TWELVE years after the signing of the peace agreement between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and six years since the establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), all obstacles seem cleared for the first regular parliamentary elections. The elections were originally due in 2022, but the Covid pandemic got in the way. Elections were reset to Oct. 13, 2025. However, on Sept. 9, 2024, the Supreme Court ruled that the province of Sulu, by virtue of a majority of the voters having rejected the Bangsamoro Organic Law in the BARMM-wide plebiscite on Jan. 21, 2019, was not part of the autonomous region. While an overwhelming majority of votes in the provinces that then comprised the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) favored the new entity, the sovereign will of each individual province had to be respected.
Later, the Supreme Court declared as unconstitutional the redistricting law passed by BARMM. Not only was it passed within the election period, some “local government units... were assigned to different districts that were neither contiguous nor adjacent,” in violation of the Bangsamoro Organic Law (Supreme Court press briefer, Oct. 1, 2025).
To make a long story short, a new redistricting law was eventually passed and both chambers of Congress have passed bills that set BARMM’s much-awaited first regular parliamentary elections to Sept. 14. The national government, the BARMM government and the MILF can now focus on other pressing issues afflicting the region, foremost of which is the erosion of trust between the MILF and the Marcos administration.
A recently published report by the International Crisis Group details the major challenges facing the fulfillment of the 2014 peace accord. To understand where this international private organization is coming from, what motivates it to investigate and examine the conflicts in BARMM and propose solutions, let me quote from its mission statement: it works “to prevent wars and shape policies that will build a more peaceful world.” It “sounds the alarm to prevent deadly conflict.”
The report “Peace in the Philippines: The Bangsamoro’s Moment of Truth” is a sincere and well-researched contribution towards attaining and sustaining peace and prosperity in the BARMM. Crucial to attaining such peace and prosperity is the steadfast commitment of the Philippine government to give Muslim Mindanao meaningful autonomy, to recognize without reservation the region’s aspiration for genuine self-determination. This is the very foundation of the peace agreement. However, Malacañang’s unilateral replacement of the interim chief minister a year ago violated this underlying principle. The MILF responded by suspending the decommissioning of the remaining 14,000 ex-combatants. This is also a response to the failure of the national government to deliver the promised benefits — cash and livelihood support, health insurance, housing and education — in full. Another complication is the recent resignation of retired general Cesar Yano, the chairman of the Philippine implementing panel. Yano’s stated reason for resigning was the lack of a formal, written appointment. There has been no official reaction from the Office of the Presidential Adviser on Peace, Reconciliation and Unity.
Among the many issues, the “most acute problem,” according to the International Crisis Group, is violence. The organization traces much of the violence to lingering land disputes and urges the BARMM government to do more to settle the disputes once and for all, to avoid future bloodshed and other destructive conflicts.
Crisis Group notes that “poverty is receding, albeit slowly.” Indeed, from 60.4 percent in 2018, poverty incidence among the population had declined to 32.4 percent by 2023. The figures for the Philippines were 16.7 percent and 15.5 percent in 2018 and 2023, respectively. BARMM has the highest population growth rate among regions — 3.43 percent in the period 2020–2024. By comparison, Region 3 came second with 1.08 percent. BARMM had the lowest per capita household final consumption expenditure and the lowest per capita GDP growth rates in 2023–2024. The region has the lowest basic literacy rate (81 percent), while its functional literacy (64.7 percent) is the fifth lowest among the country’s 18 regions.
Modest economic growth coupled with high population growth, illiteracy rate and poverty incidence indicate the urgency of more interventions to uplift the socio-economic status of the population. Better education, more basic services, and better jobs and income-earning opportunities are core components of the peace dividend. If the promises remain unfulfilled, people will become disillusioned and stop believing in the peace process.
This isn’t just about Muslim Mindanao autonomy and welfare. National security, too, is at stake here. “The peace process’s importance goes beyond the Bangsamoro,” the International Crisis Group points out, and adds that as “the Philippine government pivots from focusing on domestic insurgencies to territorial defense, ensuring stability in Mindanao is essential for Manila’s overall security strategy.”
The country, in general, and the Marcos administration in particular, should not be complacent about the importance of the full realization of the peace accord. With the worsening economic crisis, fueled by the war in the Middle East, we cannot afford further deterioration of peace and stability in Mindanao.