VEHICLE sales could reach 600,000 units by 2030, assuming an annual growth of 5 to 6 percent beginning next year, according to Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP).
TMP senior vice president for marketing Sherwin Chua Lim said the forecast covers both locally assembled and imported vehicles, based on the market’s current size and growth prospects.
While the estimate may appear conservative compared with the sharp rebound after the Covid-19 pandemic, Chua Lim maintained it was realistic, given the industry’s vulnerability to external shocks.
Sales were initially projected to grow minimally by 1 percent this year, but the Middle East crisis further weakened demand. The market is now down by 1 to 2 percent, with full-year sales expected to decline by about 2 percent.
Industry sales were over 492,000 units last year. Based on Toyota’s estimate, the market could close this year at around 480,000 units.
Chua Lim expects recovery next year, but declined to give a specific growth forecast, citing continuing economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
“It is difficult to make projections for the industry, especially in the Philippines, which is very vulnerable to external shocks,” he said.
The industry expected the recovery to continue after sales surged by 105 percent year on year in July, but demand weakened again in August.
TMP first vice president for corporate affairs Jojo Villanueva attributed the August decline partly to frequent heavy rains and widespread flooding.
Chua Lim said Toyota dealers also reported flooding in many parts of Northern Luzon, disrupting sales in affected areas.
Imported vehicles continue to account for most industry sales. Chua Lim estimated that completely built-up (CBU) imports could reach about 400,000 units out of the projected 480,000 vehicles to be sold this year.
For Toyota alone, about 70 percent of sales, or 106,000 units, consisted of CBU imports from Japan, Indonesia, Thailand and other countries.
The industry’s projected expansion will depend on sustained consumer demand, stable economic conditions, and the market’s ability to withstand geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and other external disruptions.
