THE country’s pork production is projected to rise next year as commercial farms expand capacity and adopt improved swine genetics, animal nutrition and biosecurity measures against African swine fever (ASF), according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) in Manila.
In its annual livestock and products report, USDA-FAS forecast pork production to grow by 4.4 percent to 1.06 million metric tons (MT) in 2027 from the revised 2026 estimate of 1.02 million MT.
However, the agency warned that a strong El Niño climate pattern, expected from late this year through early 2027, could slow the industry’s recovery.
Citing an Aug. 6 advisory from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, USDA-FAS said El Niño could affect swine health and productivity and disrupt crop production and feed supply chains, unless adequate preparations are made.
Pork consumption is seen to increase by 6.4 percent to 1.9 million MT in 2027 from an estimated 1.8 million MT this year, driven by population growth and easing inflation.
Imports are expected to climb by 7.1 percent to 835,000 MT from the revised 2026 estimate of 780,000 MT as domestic production remains below pre-ASF levels.
Brazil would still be the country’s leading pork supplier as repopulation efforts continue. USDA-FAS said Brazilian pork remains more affordable than shipments from the European Union, Canada and the United States.
Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) data showed that pork cuts accounted for about 72 percent of Philippine pork imports from Brazil in the first half of the year.
Overall meat imports expanded by 10.98 percent to 1.02 billion kilograms from January to July, compared with 919.82 million kg a year earlier, to stronger pork demand.
Brazil supplied 491.19 million kg, or 48 percent of total imports. It was followed by the United States with 127.38 million kg; Australia, 54.10 million kg; the Netherlands, 49.30 million kg; and Canada 46.80 million kg.
Meanwhile, domestic beef and carabeef production is forecast to remain flat at 174,000 MT in 2027. USDA-FAS cited smallholder farmers’ limited access to modern fattening technology and improved genetics. Smallholders account for more than 90 percent of the Philippines’ cattle and carabao inventory.
With domestic output stagnant, beef imports are projected to grow by 2.4 percent to 295,000 MT, with Brazil and India as main suppliers.
Beef consumption is seen to increase by 1.5 percent to 468,000 MT in 2027 from an estimated 461,000 MT this year.
