THE country’s population is projected to hit 123.96 million by 2035, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said on Tuesday.
Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon) is expected to be the most populous region.
Based on the 2020 Census of Population and Housing, the PSA said the country’s mid-year population is expected to grow from 109.20 million in 2020 to 123.96 million in 2035, adding nearly 15 million people over the period. This translates to an average annual growth rate of 0.85 percent.
As of July 2024, the country’s population was 112.7 million.
The PSA said Calabarzon will likely retain its position as the country’s most populous region until 2035, with a projected population of 19.07 million.
The region recorded the largest population in 2024 with 16.93 million.
It will be followed by the National Capital Region (NCR) with 14.49 million and Central Luzon with 14.02 million.
In contrast, the Cordillera Administrative Region is projected to remain the least populous, with an estimated 2.13 million residents by 2035.
As of mid-year 2020, nine regions had populations of at least five million.
By 2035, the PSA expects this number to increase to 12 regions, as Eastern Visayas, Soccsksargen, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) are projected to surpass the 5-million mark.
In terms of population by sex, most regions are projected to have more males than females by 2035, except for NCR and BARMM.
In NCR, females are expected to slightly outnumber males, with 7.29 million women against 7.20 million men, resulting in a sex ratio of about 99 males for every 100 females.
BARMM, meanwhile, is projected to have an almost balanced sex distribution, with about 3.201 million females and 3.196 million males, or roughly 100 males per 100 females.
Bicol, Western Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Soccsksargen, BARMM, and Caraga are expected to post steadily increasing growth rates over the projection period.
BARMM is expected to record a notable rise, with its average annual growth rate increasing from 1.62 percent between 2020 and 2025 to 1.79 percent from 2030 to 2035, reflecting what the PSA described as “robust population growth.”
On the other hand, NCR, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, and Northern Mindanao are projected to experience a continued slowdown in population growth.
NCR’s average annual growth rate is expected to decline from 0.53 percent in the 2020–2025 period to 0.40 percent between 2030 and 2035, indicating a gradual easing of population expansion in the capital region.
At the provincial level, Cavite is projected to remain the most populous province by 2030, with an estimated population of 5.30 million, followed by Bulacan at 4.17 million.
Rizal is expected to overtake Laguna to become the third most populous province by 2030, with 3.88 million people, compared with Laguna’s projected 3.72 million.
Among highly urbanized cities, Quezon City is projected to be the most populous by 2030 despite a slight dip to 2.92 million from 2.96 million in 2020.
Davao City is expected to grow from 1.78 million in 2020 to 2.04 million by 2030, while Manila’s population is projected to reach 1.90 million over the same period.
Other cities expected to exceed 1 million residents by 2030 are Caloocan, Taguig and Zamboanga City.
The PSA also projected that by 2030, 55 provinces and 11 highly urbanized cities will exceed the national average sex ratio, indicating a higher number of males relative to females.
Batanes is expected to record the highest sex ratio at 114 males per 100 females, while Mandaue City is seen to have the highest sex ratio among highly urbanized cities at 108 males per 100 females.
