Polling experts predict Reform UK could soon fall to third place

LocalPolitics
15 Aug 2026 • 5:48 PM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

Polling experts predict Reform UK could soon fall to third place

  • Polling experts predict Reform UK could soon fall to third place behind Labour and the Conservatives as its national support continues to decline.
  • Leading pollsters say Nigel Farage is driving the party's downfall after previously propelling its rise, with Reform's brand heavily tied to his personal standing.
  • Farage faces a parliamentary investigation over an unregistered £5 million gift from a donor, which could potentially trigger a second by-election in Clacton.
  • Reform UK is losing voters back to both the Conservatives and Labour.
  • The Conservatives have stabilised under Kemi Badenoch, posing further political trouble for Reform UK if the Tory recovery continues.

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