The polls have closed in a by-election seen as a major test for Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.
Labour won the seat in 2024 with more than half the vote but polling suggests the party’s candidate Angeliki Stogia faces a tight three-way contest with Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin and the Greens’ Hannah Spencer.
Votes are being counted in the Greater Manchester constituency, with the result expected on Friday morning.
The outcome is likely to have implications for May’s local and devolved elections and shape the political landscape ahead of the next general election.
Victory would buy the Prime Minister some breathing space after a period in which his leadership has been questioned and Labour’s popularity has plummeted.
Defeat would be likely to reignite speculation over efforts to replace him.
Labour has sought to paint the contest as a straight fight between it and Reform, but a loss to either Reform or the Greens would undermine its claim to be the safest anti-Reform option.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, a research company and consultancy, said the outcome would have “huge consequences going forward for narratives” that could rest on “a handful of votes”.
He told the Press Association: “If the Greens win, or come second to Reform with Labour in third, it becomes much harder for Labour to run that so-called (Emmanuel) Macron strategy. Essentially, you have to hold your nose and vote for us, because otherwise you’ll let Reform in, which I think they’re relying on.
“On the flip side, if Labour win, you know, it kind of turbo-charges that strategy for them.
“If Reform are able to sneak through the middle, it would suggest that tactical voting is either cancelling each other out or just isn’t enough to stop Reform.”
He added that if Reform is trumped by the other parties, their polling lead “doesn’t matter if the other parties can coalesce to block them”.
The contest was triggered by former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne standing down for health reasons.
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