Population growth slows to lowest since Covid as data shows Londoners are quitting city

30 Jul 2026 • 12:20 AM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

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Population growth slows to lowest since Covid as data shows Londoners are quitting city

People are quitting London in droves to move to other parts of the country, new data has revealed.

The English capital has lost more than 400,000 residents in a year, the first population decline for London since 1988 outside of the Covid pandemic.

The population is shrinking despite births outnumbering deaths in the city.

Meanwhile population growth in England and Wales has slowed to its lowest rate since the Covid.

Estimates published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found about one in four local areas across the two countries recorded a population decrease in the year to mid-2025.

The ONS data shows 420,492 people moved from London to other regions in England in the year to June 2025. A total of 288,531 people migrated from other regions to London, making a net outflow of 131,961 people.

The migration of Londoners to other parts of the country has led to the capital’s overall population falling by 0.29%, or 26,737, in a year to 9,122,909 in the middle of last year.

The ONS said: “Although London had positive natural change (more births than deaths) and net international inward migration, this was more than offset by net outward migration to other areas of the UK.”

The number of births in London in the year to June 2025 was 104,610, with 50,399 deaths. The number of arrivals from overseas was 234,612, with 182,773 people leaving to live abroad, making a net inflow of 51,839.

More than two-thirds of local authorities in the city (23 out of 33) saw a drop in population, the largest being Camden (down 1.8 per cent), Westminster (down 1.5 per cent) and Southwark (down 1.5 per cent).

Camden and Westminster had the biggest percentage falls of any area in England and Wales except for the Isles of Scilly, where the population is very small, which saw a drop of 3.5 per cent.

The population in Wales also dropped for the first time in a decade.

The slowdown is largely due to the ongoing fall in net migration to the UK, which has dropped sharply since hitting record levels in 2023, as well as a slight fall in natural change – the difference between the number of births and deaths.

The overall population of England and Wales was an estimated 62.0 million in mid-2025, up by 224,900 – or 0.4 per cent – from 61.8 million in mid-2024, the ONS said.

This is the lowest rate of increase since mid-2020 and follows a run of much steeper jumps, including 1.4 per cent in 2023 and 1.0 per cent in 2024.

Net international migration to England and Wales, the difference between the number of people immigrating from outside the UK and those moving abroad, was 211,700 in the year to mid-2025, down from 612,500 in the previous 12 months.

There were 588,000 births and 568,400 deaths, meaning natural change contributed an increase to the population of just 19,600.

The number of births was the lowest since mid-1978, while deaths were their lowest since mid-2019.

Nigel Henretty, head of population statistics at the ONS, said: “Migration has been the main driver of population change in England and Wales for the past quarter of a century.

“While that has continued to be the case, the recent fall in migration has led to the smallest population growth since the height of the pandemic.

“London saw the first population decrease since 2021 and the population of Wales fell for the first time in a decade.”

Some of the largest cities in England and Wales saw their estimated population fall between mid-2024 and mid-2025, including Leeds (down 0.3 per cent), Birmingham (down 0.5 per cent), Swansea (down 0.5 per cent), Leicester (down 0.9 per cent) and Nottingham (down 1.5 per cent), the ONS figures show.

Both Liverpool and Manchester saw their populations fall slightly, by nearly 0.1 per cent.

In total, a quarter of local authorities (78 out of 318) saw a population decrease from mid-2024 to mid-2025, compared with around one in 20 during the previous 12 months (19 of 318).

Rugby in Warwickshire had the largest increase (up 2.4 per cent), followed by Mid Suffolk (2.1 per cent), Tewkesbury in Gloucestershire (2.0 per cent) and South Derbyshire (1.9 per cent).

London was the only region of England to see a fall in population in the latest figures.

Although the capital saw more births than deaths and net international inward migration, this was “more than offset by net outward migration to other areas of the UK,” the ONS said.

As a result, London’s population decreased by 0.3 per cent in the year to mid-2025, the first fall since the year to mid-2021.

North-west England had the highest regional rate of population growth (0.7 per cent), caused mainly by international migration and people moving into the region from other areas of the UK.

The North West was one of six regions that saw more deaths than births, along with the North East, Yorkshire & the Humber, the East Midlands, the South East and South West.

This reflects “a long-term decline in fertility and an increasing number of deaths because of the growing proportion of older people”, the ONS added.

The population of Wales in mid-2025 was an estimated 3,175,181, down slightly from 3,177,949 in mid-2024 and the first drop since mid-2015.

The total population of England and Wales has increased each year since 1982, with the biggest jump occurring in the year to mid-2023 (1.4 per cent).

Migration has contributed the most to population growth since mid-1999, with net international migration “by far the largest component”.

Number of people aged 105 or over jumps by a third

Some 709 people in England and Wales were estimated to be aged 105 or over last year, up by more than a third (34%) from 529 the previous year.

The sharp jump is “the result of the large generation born after World War One starting to reach this age”, according to the ONS.

The First World War ended in 1918 and was followed by a spike in births in 1919 and 1920.

It is the first time more than 700 people aged 105 or above are estimated to have been alive in England and Wales.

The number has been on an upward trend for much of this century and has more than doubled in two decades, from 349 in 2005.

Of the 709 people aged at least 105 in mid-2025, the vast majority were women (629) and 80 were men.

The figures also show the number of people aged 100 and over in England and Wales has passed 15,000.

There were an estimated 15,172 centenarians alive in mid-2025, up 4% from 14,635 the previous year and an increase of 91% compared with 7,950 20 years earlier in mid-2005.

Females again outnumber males among this age group, with 12,322 women and 2,850 men.

The gender balance has changed over time.

Males accounted for 12.3% of people aged 100 and over in 2005, or around one in eight.

By 2025, this had risen to 18.8%, or nearly one in five.

The shift reflects improvements in life expectancy, the ONS said.

While life expectancy remains higher for women, it has increased faster for men, which has led to a narrowing of the gap.

Dr Carole Eston, chief executive of the Centre for Ageing Better, said: “The increase in the number of centenarians gives cause for hope and we need to apply learnings from this special group to the population more broadly.

“The majority of people in our country can only dream of reaching centenarian status, and many are in poor health well before the state pension age of 67.

“That accounts for why a significant number leave the workforce prematurely.

“This should be a key consideration in the Government’s review of the state pension age – we simply cannot continue to increase the age without measures to support over 50s in the labour market.

“And unless we introduce steps to respond to the changing age profile of our nation, starting with a cross-government strategy on our ageing population and a Commissioner for Older People and Ageing in England to work alongside it, we will see increasing inequality, further declines in health and life expectancy and increasing and unsustainable pressures across our welfare, care and health systems.”

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