THE stock market could move cautiously higher this week, an analyst said, as investors weigh potential monetary easing by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), a relatively strong peso and continued foreign inflows.
After gaining 105.61 points, or 1.70 percent, to close at 6,328.97 last Friday, the benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index ended down 0.07 percent week on week and up 3.16 percent since the start of the year.
RCBC chief economist MIchael Ricafort said the bourse could gain further if the BSP implements a 0.25-percentage-point policy rate cut at its Feb. 19 meeting, which would lower borrowing costs and support economic activity.
“The weaker GDP (gross domestic product) print from Q4 2025 may prompt the BSP to ease policy, which typically encourages market participation,” he noted.
The market’s resilience was said to be also supported by a stronger peso, which closed out last week at P58.86 to the dollar, net foreign buying that reached $127.2 million last week, and positive sentiment from ongoing governance reforms such as the Anti-Dynasty Bill and Cadena Act, which aims to improve budget transparency.
Globally, investors will remain attentive to United States economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals.
Ricafort also said that while US equities corrected last Thursday after faster-than-expected producer price inflation, the weaker dollar has led to capital flows into emerging markets, benefiting Asean equities and the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi).
For this week, analysts see near-term resistance around 6,400–6,500, with support at 6,145–6,280.
Market watchers will also focus on upcoming Philippine data, including the January purchasing managers index for manufacturing due to be released today, January inflation data out on Thursday and December employment figures on Friday.
“The PSEi has held above 6,000 for several weeks, signaling that near-term bottoms are likely in place. Any further policy easing or positive macro updates could push the index higher,” Ricafort said.
His comments came before news that the Securities and Exchange Commission had filed a criminal complaint against listed Villar Land Holdings Corp., which is owned by billionaire Manuel Villar, over alleged market manipulation, insider trading and false disclosures.
Investment & Capital Corp. of the Philippines President and Chief Operating Officer Manny Ocampo said the case could have a “very negative impact” on Villar Land shares and market sentiment.
