Prediction markets have a new frontrunner for the 2028 presidential election

WorldPolitics
13 Aug 2026 • 10:00 PM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

Prediction markets have a new frontrunner for the 2028 presidential election

  • Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as the frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, leading California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
  • Conventional political polling still places former Vice President Kamala Harris in the top spot for 2028, with Newsom in second and Ocasio-Cortez in fourth.
  • Ocasio-Cortez has not formally announced a presidential run, stating her immediate focus is on helping Democrats regain a majority in the upcoming midterm elections.
  • The shift in prediction odds comes as the Democratic Party continues to debate its future direction following Kamala Harris's 2024 election loss to Donald Trump.
  • Ocasio-Cortez recently drew public attention for discussing women's healthcare access and reflecting on the evolution of progressive rhetoric.

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