THE Marcos government could miss its end-of-term economic growth target but remains on track to hit other goals under the 2023-2028 Philippine Development Plan (PDP), state statisticians said on Wednesday.
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth dropped by 1.3 percentage points last year, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said, slowing to 4.4 percent from 5.7 percent in 2024.
“The latest data showed [a] low likelihood of achieving its EOP (end-of-plan) target growth rate of 6.0 to 7.0 percent,” it added.
The agency released the 2025 results of its Statistical Indicators on Philippine Development (StadDev), a yearly report that measures progress toward the economic and social targets laid out in the PDP, the medium-term blueprint that is issued at the start of a new administration.
It evaluates 534 regular indicators across 14 development sectors as well as 11 headline indicators.
“The StatDev framework is designed to serve as an early warning system, highlighting areas where the country is on or off track in meeting its end-of-plan (EOP) targets,” the PSA said.
Of the 11 headline indicators, GDP growth, outstanding government debt to GDP ratio, and the percentage of wage and salaried workers in private firms’ targets were assessed to have a low likelihood of being met in 2028.
The outstanding government debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 63.2 percent in 2025 from 60.7 percent in 2024, moving further away from the PDP goal of 58.0–61.0 percent.
The share of wage and salaried workers employed in private establishments, meanwhile, slipped to 50.0 percent in 2025 from 50.1 percent, below the end-of-plan target of 53.0 to 55.0 percent.
Still, the PSA said that “it is important to note that an indicator with low likelihood of achieving the target does not necessarily mean that the EOP target will not be met.”
“The likelihood serves as an indicator that the actual growth rate from the baseline to the latest data, given the number of years elapsed, is relatively low for the required growth rate from the baseline to the EOP target given the number of years covered,” it added.
‘High likelihood’
On the other hand, progress was said to be encouraging with respect to seven of the 11 indicators: deficit to GDP ratio, food inflation, headline inflation, unemployment, underemployment, Global Innovation Index (GII) ranking and poverty, which were seen as having a “high likelihood” of hitting the 2026 targets.
The deficit-to-GDP ratio narrowed to 5.6 percent in 2025 from 5.7 percent in 2024, putting it on course to reach the goal of 4.3 percent.
Inflation indicators also outperformed expectations, with food inflation slowing sharply to 1.0 percent in 2025 from 4.5 percent a year earlier and headline inflation markedly improving to 1.7 percent from 3.2 percent.
Both figures, the PSA noted, have already fallen below the government’s target range of 2.4 to 4.0 percent.
The country’s GII rank of 50th moved it closer to the 2028 goal of 43rd while poverty, at 15.5 percent as of 2023, neared the 8.8- to 9.0-percent target.
Gross national income per capita, meanwhile, was ruled to have a “medium likelihood” after it increased to $4,470 in 2024. The EOP target is $5,882-6,081.
‘Average performance’
Of the 14 development indicators, meanwhile, five were said to have “demonstrated strong progress,” seven were average, and two were poor.
Services, in particular, saw 16 of 19 indicators with a high or medium likelihood of hitting the targets. Several of these were said to have already exceeded EOP goals, with the digital economy’s contribution to GDP of 9.8 percent last year above the PDP target of 8.9 percent.
Tourism employment also rose to 15.7 percent of total employment, surpassing the target of 12.9-14.7 percent.
The competition, justice, employment, and human and social development sectors likewise received “good” ratings after most of their indicators showed medium or high chances of attaining their respective goals by 2028.
Average performances, meanwhile, were seen with regard to science and technology, trade and investment, infrastructure, governance, agriculture and agribusiness, social protection and macroeconomy.
Rated as poor were the areas of environment and social industry.
Overall, the PSA said the Philippines had an “average overall performance in 2025, having a medium or high likelihood of achieving the EOP targets in 2028.”
