Puffin numbers at one of the UK’s largest colonies have dropped by roughly 30 per cent over the past two years, sparking alarm for the species' future as the climate changes.
Experts fear that "extreme climate events", such as intense storms and marine heat waves, have influenced survival rates among the birds in recent years.
NatureScot and the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) carried out a census of burrows at the Isle of May National Nature Reserve (NNR) in the Firth of Forth this summer.
Scientists calculate that 36,500 puffin burrows were occupied, down from 52,000 recorded in the 2024 survey and 39,000 in 2017.
NatureScot Isle of May reserve manager, David Steel, said: “This decline is disappointing and concerning.
“Puffin numbers on the island fell sharply in the 2000s and recovered in the 2010s but have now dropped again.
“The decrease appears to be linked to a combination of ongoing pressures on seabird food supplies, poor winter survival and increasingly extreme weather conditions.
“Unfortunately, this mirrors similar challenges that are affecting seabirds more widely.
“All of this underlines the importance of continued monitoring and conservation work at sites like the Isle of May NNR, where data and research are playing a vital role in helping us to understand these trends and respond.”
Puffins can spend up to eight months of the year out at sea, and only return to land in early spring to breed.
The birds generally mate for life, and pairs often return each year to the same nesting spot where the female lays a single egg which hatches into a puffling.
UKCEH said its long-term research shows that puffins have struggled with the impacts of climate change.
Storms in recent years have killed large numbers of birds, while rising ocean temperatures can reduce the availability of food sources for puffins – particularly sandeels.
UKCEH has been monitoring seabird colonies on the Isle of May for five decades.
Mark Newell, UKCEH’s field manager on the Isle of May, said: “We believe that the puffin population has recently suffered from a series of extreme climate events, including marine heat waves and intense storms affecting survival in three of the last five winters.
“The concern for puffins and other seabirds is that climate scientists are predicting an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events in future.”
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