PALAY and corn production in the third quarter could fall below government estimates due to El Niño, recent typhoons, and heavy rains brought by the southwest monsoon, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu-Laurel Jr. said Friday.
Tiu-Laurel did not provide updated figures, but told The Manila Times that the two crops could post lower output than in previous years and projections by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
The PSA earlier forecast palay production at 3.19 million metric tons (MT) in Q3, down 15 percent from the 3.75 million MT in 2025.
The area harvested for palay was estimated to shrink by 15.8 percent to 771,790 hectares from 916,770 ha in the same quarter last year.
Federation of Free Farmers national manager Raul Montemayor said the projected decline in palay output was driven by smaller harvested areas, while average yields were expected to improve slightly by about 1 percent.
Montemayor attributed the reduction in harvested area to delayed planting, as rains started in June instead of May. Since rice has a three- to four-month growing cycle, some harvests may have been pushed back to Q4.
Typhoons and flooding may have also damaged standing crops, Montemayor said. Some farmers may have reduced their planted areas because of rising fuel and fertilizer costs, and in anticipation of the El Niño warm weather pattern, whose effects are expected to intensify in Q4.
“We will have to wait for the actual harvest results to see whether total production dropped or harvests were merely delayed,” Montemayor said.
For corn, the PSA projected Q3 production at 2.08 million MT, down 14.4 percent from 2.43 million MT in 2025.
The area harvested for corn was estimated to contract by 12.8 percent to 688,030 ha from 789,240 ha.
Data from the Department of Agriculture’s Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Operations Center showed that the cost of crop damage caused by typhoons Luis, Maymay, Neneng and Pilandok, along with the southwest monsoon, had reached P4.38 billion as of early September.
Rice sustained the largest losses at P2.05 billion, covering 73,409 ha and 65,106 MT of damaged production. Corn losses totaled P127.60 million, affecting 1,984 ha and 4,707 MT of production.
