THE Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) could move within a tight and cautious range as investors position ahead of Thursday’s Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) policy meeting, analysts said.
The PSEi, which last Wednesday closed at a near-seven month high of 6,488.92, slipped to 6,384.58 on Friday — down 0.10 percent week on week but up 5.48 percent since the start of the year.
Online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com noted that investors had turned cautious following the mid-week rally, with profit-taking dragging the index below the 6,400 level.
Despite the pullback, RCBC chief economist Michael Ricafort said the index was still at its highest level in nearly 6.5 months and had now stayed above the 6,000 mark for almost two months, signaling that the broader uptrend remained intact.
Japhet Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks FInancial Inc., said sentiment in the latter part of last week was dominated by caution as investors locked in gains while bracing for fresh leads.
From a valuation perspective, however, he said that the local market remained attractive with the PSEi trading at a 10.7x price-to-earnings ratio, below its historical average of 14.4x and the regional average of 19.2x.
This Thursday’s BSP meeting will be the main catalyst for traders, Ricafort said, and a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected could lift sentiment.
Easing expectations have already helped push the peso to P58.02 against the dollar, he noted, the currency’s strongest close in more than four months.
Investors are also expected to be waiting for today’s release of overseas Filipino workers’ (OFW) remittance data for December as well as continuing fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 corporate earnings results.
Tantiangco said that if the PSEi regains and sustains levels above 6,400 and its 10-day exponential moving average, a climb to the 6,500 level was possible. Failure to do so, however, could pull the index toward 6,150–6,400.
Ricafort, meanwhile, said the immediate minor support was 6,175–6,315 and major support at 5,950–6,065. Resistance was pegged at 6,500. A sustained breakout above these levels could open the path toward the 7,000 area over the medium term.