Unseasonable warmth reaches historic levels across the continental United States.
Forecasts suggest a strong El Niño could further raise global temperatures in the months ahead.
March 2026 marked an unprecedented temperature anomaly across the continental United States, setting a new benchmark in more than a century of observations. Federal data shows that not only did the month rank as the warmest March on record, but it also exceeded normal conditions by a wider margin than any other month ever recorded.
At the same time, meteorologists are closely tracking developments in the Pacific Ocean, where conditions are increasingly favorable for the formation of an El Niño event. Some forecasts indicate that it could intensify into a particularly strong episode, with implications for global weather patterns and temperatures.
Historic Temperature Anomaly Across the United States
The average temperature across the contiguous United States in March reached 50.85 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 9.35 degrees above the 20th-century average for the month, according to data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This surpasses the previous record anomaly of 8.9 degrees set in March 2012, making it the most abnormally warm month ever recorded in the Lower 48 states, regardless of season.
Daytime temperatures played a significant role in this record. NOAA reported that average maximum temperatures were 11.4 degrees above normal, nearly reaching levels typical for April. This sustained warmth followed what had already been described as the hottest winter on record, extending an unusual pattern across seasons.
The scale of the event is reflected in the number of records broken. More than 19,800 daily heat records were set nationwide, while over 2,000 locations registered monthly records, according to meteorologistGuy Walton, who analyzes NOAA data. According to Climate Central, roughly one-third of the country experienced heat conditions on March 20 and 21 that would have been extremely unlikely without human-driven climate change.
Longer-term trends also reinforce the significance of the event. Six of the ten most abnormally warm months in U.S. history have occurred within the past decade, highlighting a concentration of extreme temperature anomalies in recent years.
El Niño Conditions May Amplify Global Heat
Alongside these record temperatures, scientists are monitoring a transition in the Pacific climate system. Conditions are shifting from La Niña toward neutral, with a 62 percent chance that El Niño will develop during the summer and persist through the end of the year, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.
El Niño is characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. When these waters warm by more than2 degrees Celsius, the event is often described as “super,” a threshold that forecasters say could be approached in the coming months. According to NOAA and European climate agencies, projections suggest this event could rival some of the strongest on record.
Such warming typically releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures with a delay of several months. According to Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini, a strong El Niño could push global temperatures to new records in late 2026 and into 2027.
Past events illustrate the potential scale of impacts. The 2015 El Niño brought drought to parts of Africa and water shortages in Puerto Rico, while also influencing hurricane activity in the Pacific, according to analyses by U.S. federal scientists. Patterns vary by region, but shifts in rainfall, drought, and storm intensity are common.
Even with growing confidence in forecasts, uncertainties remain. Scientists note that spring predictions are less reliable due to what is known as the “spring predictability barrier,” which can lead to changes in outlooks over time. Still, the alignment of oceanic and atmospheric indicators has led experts to emphasize preparedness as conditions continue to evolve.
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