Reform is heading for defeat in Makerfield by-election – here’s why

• A Reform UK board member has admitted that Andy Burnham's influence is making the Makerfield by-election very challenging for the party.
• Internal Reform UK data suggests the party is facing a comfortable defeat, with Labour predicted to win by approximately five points.
• The data indicates that Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is set to split the right-wing vote, hindering Reform UK's prospects of victory.
• Predictions estimate Labour will secure around 45.5% of the vote, Reform UK 41%, and Restore Britain 5%.
• Reform insiders have cited a 'disastrous candidate selection' and the party's inability to counter Restore Britain's impact as significant weaknesses.

IN FULL

Even Reform’s own data suggests it will lose Makerfield by-election, insider says