Reform UK has opened up a clear lead over Scottish Labour for second place ahead of May’s Holyrood election, a new poll suggests.
Nigel Farage’s party – led north of the border by former Tory peer Malcolm Offord – has a five-point lead over Labour in the YouGov poll published on Thursday.
The polling body spoke to 1,113 people in Scotland between January 8 and 14.
Reform boasted 20% support in both the constituency and regional vote, compared to 15% for Labour.
The SNP remained well in front of the pack in the poll, on 34% and 29% respectively.
YouGov's first voting intention poll for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election shows clear leads for the SNP, with Reform UK now in second place
— YouGov (@YouGov) January 29, 2026
Constituency vote
SNP: 34% (-14 from 2021 election)
Ref: 20% (New)
Lab: 15% (-7)
Con: 10% (-12)
LD: 10% (+3)
Grn: 9% (+8) pic.twitter.com/hh9RysQt4E
But that represents a substantial drop from the 48% and 40% support it enjoyed in the last Holyrood election in 2021.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives sunk to 10% support in constituencies and 11% in the regional list, according to Thursday’s poll.
The Scottish Greens jumped to 12% on the list – overtaking the Tories into fourth place – and 9% in constituencies.
Liberal Democrat support sat at 9% and 10% respectively.
The pollster also looked at movements between parties since the 2024 general election, finding 21% of respondents who backed Labour have become undecided, with 14% saying they will back Reform UK and 13% now supporting the SNP.
The Tories have retained 48% of their support, according to the poll, with 27% going to Reform UK and 17% into the undecided column.
Mr Offord said the poll findings “reflect the reality we are hearing on the doorsteps”.
He added: “Anas Sarwar is in the last-chance saloon. His desperate attempts to escape Scottish Labour’s toxic brand and make this a presidential election between him and (John) Swinney have backfired spectacularly.
“The SNP are down 14 points on the 2021 election, recording their lowest opinion poll share since John Swinney’s disastrous first leadership of the party in 2003.
“It is now a clear two-horse race between a clapped-out SNP Government and new direction for Scotland with Reform.”
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